Durable Goods (Jan.)

The 4.9% m/m increase in durable goods orders in January was flattered by a strong rebound in the notoriously volatile aircraft component, but details of the report bode well for equipment investment in the first quarter and should quell fears that the US economy is heading for a recession. Indeed, the risks to our estimate that first-quarter GDP will be around 2.5% annualised now appear to lie on the upside.

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