Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4) The latest Nigerian GDP figures support our view that growth in Africa’s largest economy will be much weaker than most expect. While Nigeria has been battered by low oil prices, the country’s bungled... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Budapest retail to produce five years of double-digit returns The recovery in Hungarian consumer spending is likely to be sustained, boosting occupier demand from new entrants. In the absence of new supply, this will drive rents upwards and encourage investment... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will the leisure-to-retail discount persist? By the end of 2015, at just under 50bps, the spread between leisure and all-retail yields was lower than at any point since 2007. With less exposure to structural oversupply risks than retail assets... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily On the recoveries in industrial commodities: better early than never? 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Another five years of rejection for coal The draft outline of China’s latest five-year plan spells more bad news for global coal prices as the government focuses on energy efficiency and reducing carbon emissions, while continuing to support... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What should we make of the rebound in iron ore prices? The recent surge in the price of iron ore should be seen in the context of improving sentiment towards industrial commodities in general. The even larger price falls that occurred before have also... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Tracker suggests that aggregate EM capital outflows declined markedly last month, to around $40bn, one of the lowest figures in the past year. This was driven by a fall in outflows from China... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics (Q4) Loan to income ratios rose again in the final quarter of 2015, as the high level of house prices forced buyers to take on larger debts. But with the path for interest rates looking much shallower than... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portuguese yields to rise further on threat of QE exclusion The latest rise in Portuguese bond yields reflects fears that its debt will soon be classified as junk by all four major ratings agencies, leading the country to be excluded from the ECB’s asset... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Feb.) The smaller-than-expected fall in Chilean inflation in February suggests that price pressures remain strong. This creates a dilemma for the central bank, which is likely to be reluctant to hike rates... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q4) The second estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q4 showed that the consumer recovery, which boosted growth last year, is losing steam. With recent evidence that growth is slowing and inflation expectations... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remained robust in February China’s commodity import volumes dipped in February from a month earlier, in large part due to seasonal disruption associated with the Lunar New Year holiday. But the bigger picture is that imports of... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are negative policy rates a plus for the world economy? Negative interest rates have come under attack recently, but in our view most of the criticisms are over-stated. In particular, the costs of negative rates for commercial banks appear to be very small... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Feb.) After a surprisingly-strong start to the year, February’s BRC sales figures showed retail sales growth moderating. With temporary supports set to fade, 2016 looks likely to be a solid, rather than... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jan.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish industrial production in January, of 5.6% y/y, supports our view that the economy is set for another year of robust growth. Nonetheless, the underlying... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Storm clouds gather over Lebanon Recent announcements by the Gulf countries that they will cut off financial support to Lebanon and slap a travel ban on the country are likely to have a larger political than economic impact. But if... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
