Global Markets Update Re-examining the outlook for the US dollar Since 20th January, the US dollar has depreciated against the vast majority of the currencies in the Federal Reserve’s broad dollar index. As a result, its value on that measure has fallen by more... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2016 Preview With the Chancellor constrained by both the public finances and a desire not to rock the boat ahead of the EU referendum, this Budget is unlikely to be a radical affair. Any changes to the borrowing... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the IMF right to be so bearish about the world economy? The management of the IMF has suggested that the world economy is slowing sharply and warned that things could get a lot worse. But in our view, although global growth may have slipped a little... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stock movements may point to optimism about demand LME exchange stocks have generally been falling this year, while Shanghai-based stocks have been rising. We suspect that rising stocks in China are a reflection of hopes that ongoing stimulus measures... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why has the oil windfall been felt unevenly across EMs Consumer spending growth has risen far more sharply in Emerging Europe than in Emerging Asia over the past year and a half, even though both regions have received a similar boost from the drop in oil... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed can’t leave rates this low for much longer Despite the clear improvement in the incoming economic data over the past month, which has triggered a reversal of the earlier tightening in financial conditions, the chance of the Fed raising... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further rise in Mexican inflation in February to 2.9% y/y from 2.5% y/y in January, was due largely to a pick-up in food inflation, rather than an increase in general price pressures. Even so... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Could sterling be the trigger for the next correction? An out vote in June’s EU referendum could trigger a sharp slide in sterling. But while that might push up prices, it is unlikely to raise interest rates or bond yields to levels that would prove... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Feb.) The fall in Brazilian inflation in February, to 10.4% y/y from 10.7% y/y in January, was driven entirely by the unwinding of the impact of regulated price hikes implemented in the same period last... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Not much relief in sight for Greece The resumption of the first formal review of Greece’s third bailout has raised hopes that the country’s creditors may soon grant it some form of debt relief. But it won’t be big enough to make Greece... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia holds rate, but all eyes on BNM governor succession Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) today kept its policy rate on hold at 3.25% at a monetary policy meeting that will be Governor Zeti’s last after 16 years at the helm. We continue to think rates will be... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) After experiencing the largest monthly fall in three years in December, UK industrial production started 2016 on a somewhat more positive note. However, external factors suggest there won’t be much... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank likely to announce more easing this month Japan’s economy is struggling to regain momentum and the recent strengthening of the yen is providing a further headwind to efforts to raise inflation. The Bank of Japan will therefore have to step up... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The relatively small fall in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in March should be considered a fairly good result when set against the extent of the weakness in the financial markets earlier... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s REE exports start the year strongly China’s total rare earth element (REE) exports were lower in January and February than in December, largely due to the Chinese New Year holidays. But exports in both months were still higher than... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
