Latin America Economics Update Markets rally, Brazilian assets outperform A recovery in global commodity prices has helped to support a broad-based rally in Latin America’s financial markets so far this month. Brazilian assets are down a little today but they have... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro-zone recovery back on track? Any economic effects of last week’s tragic terrorist attacks in Brussels clearly pale into insignificance compared to the loss of life and social consequences. But the direct economic impact seems... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed adopts cavalier attitude to inflation rebound The downward revision to the Fed’s interest rate projections at the March FOMC meeting, despite little change in the economic projections, has prompted plenty of speculation that its “reaction... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Is the best yet to come for silver prices? After a weak 2015, the prices of gold and silver have rallied since the beginning of the year, underpinned by safe-haven demand and rising inflation expectations in the US. Yet, silver has failed to... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Oil prices surge as sentiment bounces back A weaker dollar, fading fears about the economies of both the US and China, combined with a positive turn in sentiment towards commodities and risky assets in general have helped to boost oil prices... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The 2.8% m/m decline in headline durable goods orders in February was partly due to a slump in the volatile commercial aircraft category. But even allowing for that, the details of the report suggest... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview Our econometric model points to a 180,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in March. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9%. Otherwise, we’ve pencilled in a 0.4% m/m gain in average... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Have homebuilders shut out first-time buyers? In recent years, homebuilders have focussed on constructing more expensive properties. However, that primarily reflects builders responding to underlying demand conditions. So, for the most part, we... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC bows to government pressure The Turkish central bank’s surprise decision to reduce its overnight lending rate by 25bp to 10.5% today was dressed up as a move to simplify the monetary setup, but it appears to be a result of... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is speculative development a problem in the industrial market? Speculative industrial development rose significantly in 2015. But that needs to be balanced against healthy demand, low vacancy rates and limits to future pipelines. In turn, we expect all-industrial... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan approaching the limits of conventional monetary policy Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) cut its discount rate by 12.5 basis points to 1.50% today against a backdrop of very weak growth and low inflationary pressures. Further cuts to the discount rate are... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Feb.) Mortgage approvals for house purchase among the BBA’s group of high street banks cooled in February. This adds to a growing body of evidence that investors’ rush to transact ahead of April’s stamp... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt devaluation: assessing the impact on balance sheets The recent devaluation of the Egyptian pound will create winners and losers within the country through its impact on balance sheets. Households and commercial banks stand to gain from a rise in the... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) We doubt that February’s dip in retail sales is the beginning of a more pronounced slowdown in the pace of the consumer recovery. What’s more, while there are some headwinds to spending growth, the... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook The worst is yet to come Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa fell to a 16 year-low last year, and we believe that growth will weaken even further 2016. Three key factors will drive this decline. First, a combination of drought... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Mar.) Capital outflows eased markedly last month as the pace of outbound investment by Chinese firms and investors cooled and foreigners pulled money out of mainland securities and renminbi deposits at a... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
