US Economics Update We need to talk about Q1 GDP growth Thanks to a markedly weaker gain in consumption than we were previously expecting, it now appears that first-quarter GDP growth was no more than 1% annualised. Following on from the 1.4% gain in the... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are EM equities just a play on oil? An increase in the price of oil in the past day or two has helped at least some equity markets in the emerging world to snap their poor start to the second quarter. We doubt that oil prices will climb... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Signs of a growing inflation problem in Colombia Colombian inflation hit a 15-year high of 8.0% y/y in March – one of the highest rates among major EMs – and, while most of the rise has been due to temporary factors that should start to fade in the... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Prospects for monetary policy still point to rebound in dollar 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Could prime shopping centre rents be a bright spot in retail? Our forecasts envisage that shopping centre rental growth will average less than 2%p.a. in 2016 and 2017. But those relatively subdued figures disguise a rather brighter outlook for prime shopping... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strong US home building to underpin the price of lumber A pick up in US single-family home building should continue to support the price of US lumber this year even if the Canadian dollar gives back some ground against the greenback. 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.) The fall in Mexican inflation last month, to 2.6% y/y from 2.9% y/y in February, confirms that overall price pressures in the economy remain in check. But the recent steady rise in core inflation... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Strength of low-paid hiring may be holding down average wages The recent weakness of wage growth over the past few months is partly explained by a deterioration in the quality of jobs being created, which is also reflected in a surge in low-skilled labour force... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Manufacturing sector springs to life, for now Today’s strong output figure is a rare sign of life from South Africa’s moribund manufacturing sector. Even so, we expect that the sector will struggle to sustain much growth this year. 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Feb.) Despite February’s decline in export volumes, earlier gains mean that exports in Q1 asa whole grew quite strongly, easily outpacing imports. Net exports likely contributedas much as 3 percentage... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Mar.) According to the Halifax index, house price inflation move back in to double-digit territory last month. But the data are something of an outlier, with most other sources pointing to a rate of... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc demand looks promising The price of zinc has rallied strongly, and by more than other metals, reflecting the prospect of lower supply. But we think that the demand outlook is also positive, which will add further support to... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Brexit uncertainty to keep MPC on hold for a while yet Weaker-than-anticipated inflation, lingering uncertainty in global financial markets and concerns about the impact that the EU referendum is having on the real economy means that this month’s interest... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Mar.) Receding fears over a sharp renminbi devaluation, along with favourable exchange rate movements, has helped end the recent string of declines in the value of China’s FX reserves. 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation to ease again but RBI's targets under threat Inflation is likely to have fallen in March as food price pressures continued to ease. But further ahead, the RBI still faces a difficult task in meeting its inflation targets for 2017 and 2018. Given... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s public finances leave a lot to be desired The Egyptian government faces a tough task in meeting its budget deficit target for the upcoming fiscal year and, worryingly, there seems to be a growing sense that the authorities are wavering on... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
