US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The 0.3% m/m decline in retail sales was slightly weaker than consensus expectations and was mainly due to a 2.1% m/m decline in auto sales. More importantly, while the 0.1% m/m increase in control... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What might Brexit mean for European property? It is most likely that the UK will vote to stay in the EU. However, in the event of a ‘leave’ vote, it is not necessarily the case that European commercial property investment would be immediately... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Still some way off from sustainable aluminium price rally Global aluminium output fell again in February, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). But smelter restarts in a still over-supplied market could limit the scope for price increases... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Glut of grains & soybeans heading into this year’s harvests The USDA’s latest demand and supply estimates continue to provide little evidence of any shortage of global corn, wheat and soybean supplies heading into the 2016/17 season. As such, we think prices... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Tracker suggests that total capital outflows from EMs eased further in March, reaching a nine-month low of just under $40bn. One reason is that the recent improvement in sentiment towards EMs has... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Buhari’s Beijing deal overblown Media reports have overstated importance of the deals signed this week between Nigeria and China. The announced deals provide little support for Nigeria’s ailing economy. 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: notes from the ground Concerns about the deepening political crisis understandably dominated our conversations during a trip to Brazil this week, with a growing number of local market participants now warning of complete... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q1) Lenders reported a small drop in credit availability to the residential sector in the first quarter of 2016, although they expect this to be temporary. Similarly, lenders are also displaying a degree... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q1) Lenders reported a small drop in credit availability to the residential sector in the first quarter of 2016, although they expect this to be temporary. Similarly, lenders are also displaying a degree... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Feb.) Despite February’s fall in industrial production, the sector looks likely to have had a fairly strong Q1. But survey evidence suggests that this is unlikely to be sustained. 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A strong quarter for China’s industrial commodity imports China’s commodity import volumes rose in March, rounding off a strong quarter for import demand. However, local stocks have been building, suggesting that we will need to see a pick-up in activity if... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile postpones interest rate hikes on weak economy The Central Bank of Chile’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at 3.50% reflects policymakers concerns about the weakness of the economy and reinforces our view that further rate hikes are... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Has monetary policy lost its power? We do not share the view that monetary policy has become impotent. However, scope to step up monetary stimulus much beyond current levels is small. The Bank of Japan’s efforts to boost growth and lift... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Mar.) China’s trade data for March point to healthy growth in import volumes and add to growing evidence that the extreme gloom of a few weeks ago about the state of the domestic economy was misplaced. 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The further fall in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in April suggests that the apparent weakness in consumption growth in the first quarter may continue into the second. It also hints that... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Outlook for Australian services exports good, not great While exports of services will continue to grow rapidly over the next decade, they won’t boost GDP by anywhere near as much as resources exports have. For that to happen, countries such as China and... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
