India Economics Update Government faces uphill task to meet export target The narrowing in India's trade deficit to a six-year low in FY15/16 is welcome news, but this masks the fact that exports slumped by over 15% last year. With progress on the reforms needed to create a... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Treasury’s Brexit report rests on some pessimistic assumptions The report by HM Treasury, published today, on the long-run economic impact of a Brexit, paints a fairly gloomy picture. However, this is just another in what is an extensive and wide-ranging set of... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Little reason to expect office rents in Milan to jump Last year, office take-up in Milan hit a new record and the vacancy rate fell for the first time since 2008. Although both factors imply the recovery in office rents may be about to gather momentum... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Doha disappoints, but oil market likely to rebalance anyway The failure of Sunday’s meeting in Doha to freeze oil production has further undermined the credibility of OPEC. But it has very little impact on our outlook for supply over the rest of the year. We... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece’s first bailout review still not a done deal The protracted and difficult negotiations surrounding the first review of Greece’s third bailout underline the challenges that still lie ahead for Greece, its creditors and the euro-zone’s... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia digs its heels in at Doha Saudi Arabia’s insistence that Iran agree to freeze oil production scuppered any chance of a deal in Doha at the weekend and suggests that the Kingdom is in no mood to abandon its oil market strategy... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Maturing FX swaps unlikely to rattle markets Recent concerns over a potential market sell-off when the Reserve Bank‘s FX swap facilities, unveiled during the 2013 “taper tantrum”, mature have been overstated. For a start, the RBI has already... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Central London retail values to hold on to recent gains Over the next few years, we expect high rents and elevated valuations to act as an increasing drag on capital values for the Central London retail market. That said, structural change in the retail... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Earthquake unlikely to have major economic impact While the earthquake that hit Kyushu Island during the weekend is a human tragedy, we doubt that it will have a severe impact on Japan’s economy. The scale of damage does not appear huge and... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Property revival shoring up growth, for now The cyclical recovery we had forecast for the start of 2016 appears to be underway. The turnaround has been built on the back of stronger activity in construction and real estate, supported by policy... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Mar.) Wholesale price inflation was virtually unchanged in March but, looking ahead, we think that it will return to positive territory over the next couple of months. 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand CPI Inflation (Q1) The rebound in CPI inflation in the first quarter increases the chances that the RBNZ won’t cut interest rates to 2.0% at next week’s policy meeting and will instead wait until the meeting in June. By... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly All eyes on Doha Commodity prices have generally risen over the past week, despite some appreciation of the US dollar, on a combination of strong Chinese economic data and optimism that an output freeze will be agreed... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Are vehicle sales nearing the finish line? The slowdown in first-quarter real consumption growth is primarily a reflection of the big drop back in motor vehicle sales over the past couple of months. In contrast, domestic motor vehicle... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
