Industrial Metals Update A strong first quarter for China’s metals imports China’s metals imports remained high in March, reflecting the general optimism about a pick-up in demand. However, recent price rises and signs of stockpiling in China suggest that import growth may... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No cuts in Indonesia likely until new policy rate comes into force With Bank Indonesia (BI) having announced on Friday that it is planning to replace its main policy rate because the current rate has little influence over commercial banks’ lending rates, a fourth... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update China’s PGM imports point to strong demand in Q1 China’s imports of palladium and platinum were up strongly in the first quarter as the tax break on small cars and relatively low prices stimulated demand for PGMs in the local market. Looking ahead... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Further falls needed to bring Moscow retail rents back to reality The falls in Moscow office and industrial rents since 2014 have been largely in line with our expectations. But despite large falls in real wages, retail rents have fallen by much less than we... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances & Retail Sales (Mar.) March’s fall in retail sales added to other evidence indicating that the economic recovery has slowed since the start of the year. While there was better news on public borrowing, the OBR’s full-year... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update FX intervention could be on the way in Sweden Sweden’s Riksbank expanded its QE programme and kept its options open for easing later in the year. While the economy is growing strongly and inflation has picked up recently, a rising currency and... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update IMF behind the curve on EM capital flows The IMF was at pains to highlight the threat of capital outflows from emerging markets (EMs) in the April edition of its World Economic Outlook. But the recent rally in EM financial markets seems to... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bond market rally could soon run out of steam Yields on India's local currency debt have fallen so far in April to their lowest in nearly three years. But with the scope for further monetary loosening now looking limited, we think that yields are... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank can ride the wave of surplus liquidity The Russian government’s use of its oil funds to finance the budget deficit will cause the monetary base to expand and is likely to push the banking sector from having a deficit of liquidity to a... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Rates may have to fall to 1.75% We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut interest rates by 0.25% to 2.00% at the meeting in early June rather than at the meeting on Thursday 28th April, although we wouldn’t completely rule... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update FX intervention could be on the way in Sweden Sweden’s Riksbank expanded its QE programme and kept its options open for easing later in the year. While the economy is growing strongly and inflation has picked up recently, a rising currency and... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil inventories rose last week despite a jump in inputs to refineries, while gasoline stocks were down slightly. 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Mar.) Existing home sales reversed some of last month’s drop with a gain of 5.1% m/m. But sales have made essentially no headway over the past year – the annual growth rate dropped to just 1.5%. While... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update New Turkish central bank governor likely to cut rates further The Turkish MPC’s 50bp cut in the overnight lending rate today, to 10.0%, was pinned on the recent improvement in inflation (although political pressure no doubt played a role) and with the headline... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the dollar’s boost to US equities last? The recent weakness of the dollar has provided a boost to the US stock market which we do not expect to last. Admittedly, we do not anticipate another big increase in the US currency’s trade-weighted... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prime Belgian retail rents to defy soft consumer fundamentals A softening in the retail sector has negatively impacted the wider retail market in Belgium. However, new entrants from abroad remain keen on the prime high streets and shopping centres in major... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
