UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Mar.) The number of house purchase mortgage approvals in the BBA data for high street banks fell in March. That said, with economic conditions still broadly supportive and interest rates at record lows, we... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish bond market rallies It’s been a good month for Turkish financial markets. The lira and equities have strengthened. And the surprisingly sharp fall in inflation last month allowed the central bank to ease monetary policy... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update When will pork price inflation peak? Pork price inflation in China surged in March, bringing echoes of 2007 and 2011, when spikes in pork prices caused headline consumer price inflation to jump above 6%. However, we think the upward... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency effects begin to unwind The effects of sharp falls in EM exchange rates since 2014 – which pushed inflation up to multi-year highs in a number of major economies – are now starting to fade. Assuming there isn’t another big... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q1 Preliminary) Korea’s economy lost further momentum in the first quarter of 2016, but we expect a modest recovery in exports as well as supportive policies to help prop up growth in the coming quarters . 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Mar.) New home sales fell in March – a weaker performance than we had expected. But with the economic backdrop still supporting housing demand, and inventory levels for new homes still growing, we still... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Survey evidence points to second-quarter rebound The recent activity data indicate that first-quarter GDP growth slowed to just 0.8% annualised. However, we expect this to prove only a temporary setback rather than the start of a more serious... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s “Vision 2030” provides few new details The Saudi government’s “Vision 2030” plan outlined today has been welcomed by the local financial markets, but it provided few fresh details on the reform agenda and missed key issues such as... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Oil rally helps to lift pessimism over Russia Some of the gloom surrounding Russia’s economy seems to have lifted over the past month. The rise in oil prices has triggered a rally in local financial markets – the ruble is up by 12% against the... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Power rationing another blow to Venezuela’s economy Venezuela’s acute power crisis, which has now forced the government into full-blown rationing, has dealt yet another blow to the beleaguered economy. We reckon that the power crisis could subtract... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Apr. & Q2) The CBI Industrial Trends Survey for April & Q2 showed a slight improvement in manufacturing activity over the past month and firms are still optimistic about the future, despite the risks surrounding... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Apr.) April’s German Ifo survey supports the message from other surveys like the PMI and ZEW that growth is still fairly slow . This suggests that underlying inflation will remain subdued and perhaps... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What would the impact be if Governor Rajan stepped down? Indian media has been awash with reports that RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan might not have his contract renewed when his term expires in September. In the unlikely case that this occurs, financial... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Rents and capital values lose momentum With investment activity muted, yields approaching their floor, and rental value growth slowing, capital value growth will continue to moderate. That said, healthy economic conditions and loose... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Mar.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia remained elevated at 4.3% y/y in March due to the electricity and water tariff hikes earlier in the year and, more recently, last month’s hike in tobacco import duties. These... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
