UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Mar.) March’s household borrowing figures will only have added to concerns that the consumer recovery is built on unsustainably-high rates of unsecured lending growth. But there are reasons to think that... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Mar.) Mortgage approvals for house purchase dipped a little in March, as the number of new buyers seeking to transact ahead of the stamp-duty surcharge tailed off. But gross lending surged, as those BTL and... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Preliminary Flash GDP (Q1) & Flash CPI (Apr.) The euro-zone’s new earlier (“preliminary flash”) estimate of GDP confirmed the message from country data that the economy regained some pace in Q1 after the slowdown in H2 last year. But growth is... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Mar.) Net lending to the property sector picked up March. However, with traditional lenders’ exposure to the sector simply stabilising and riskier development lending still falling, it is hard to argue that... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf countries continue adjustment to cheap oil Saudi Arabia’s ambitious plans to overhaul its economy have grabbed the headlines in recent days, but the past month has seen a number of other Gulf countries announce further measures to deal with... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Apr.) While consumer confidence fell more sharply than expected in April, we would caution against reading too much into one month’s data. What’s more, April’s reading was still within the top 30% of all... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Spare capacity to widen further We now expect Japan’s economy to expand by only 0.5% this year – and that is on the assumption that the government presses ahead with next year’s sales tax hike. If it does, households will bring some... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia Budget Preview: Gambling with the AAA credit rating Treasurer Scott Morrison will put Australia’s AAA credit rating at risk in Tuesday’s Federal Budget by revealing a net rise in spending in an attempt to gain favour ahead of the probable election on... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q1 Advanced) Today’s GDP figures confirm that Taiwan’s economy is struggling badly, with GDP contracting by 0.8% y/y in the first quarter of the year. Given that policymakers are running out of room to stimulate... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Conditions improve, but activity remains depressed The latest activity data from across Latin America have been encouraging, but the bigger picture is that the region’s economy is still struggling. Industrial and retail output in Brazil fell at a... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt central bank holds rates, but further hikes likely soon The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept its overnight deposit rate at 10.75% today as it awaits further evidence of the impact on inflation from last month’s devaluation of the pound. With inflation set... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Will the Fed spoil the party? Our view is that monetary policy will be tightened by more than investors assume in the US, but typically be at least as loose as they envisage elsewhere. We therefore expect to see a significant rise... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain will continue to miss its fiscal targets Political uncertainty and slowing growth imply that Spain’s budget deficit targets are too optimistic. As such, Spain looks set to breach the EU’s 3% deficit limit for at least two more years. And, in... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Has property finally turned the corner? A recovery in China’s property market appears to be giving a lift to economic growth. This should continue for a few quarters. But the turnaround does not signal that the drawn-out correction in China... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Modest slowdown in pace of payroll gains not worrisome Our econometric model points to a more modest 170,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in April, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 5.0%. Otherwise, we’ve pencilled in a 0.3% m/m gain in... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
