US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) The combination of a steady rise in housing demand and very low levels of housing inventory is putting upwards pressure on house prices. While the very large 1.9% m/m gain is likely to be revised down... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investor outlook remains upbeat, despite fall in Q1 activity Investment activity across Europe declined in Q1. However, we don’t think that this is a sign of things to come this year. Indeed, investor sentiment remains upbeat, while strong capital flows are... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Mar.) The 1.4% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in March was encouraging, but it partly reflects payback for February’s huge 2.7% m/m fall. Moreover, the annual pace of contraction accelerated... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Apr.) The sharper-than-expected decline in Turkish inflation last month, to 6.6% y/y, supports our view that the central bank’s current easing cycle has further to run. However, the fall in the headline... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Apr.) April’s PMI data suggest that Egypt’s economy has continued to struggle and provided the first sign that inflation pressures are building following March’s devaluation of the pound. Meanwhile, the... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rate cut to be followed by further reduction to 1.5% Today’s decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates from 2.0% to 1.75% will help solve the economy’s twin problems of too slow growth and too low underlying inflation. It also... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) Manufacturing conditions in Emerging Asia remained lacklustre in April. In the two economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data, there are some signs of stabilisation in Korea’s... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Apr.) Weaker-than-expected PMI readings for April don’t alter our relatively upbeat view on the short-run prospects for China’s economy. 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update SLOS shows contrast between business and consumer lending The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOS) underscores that business investment is likely to remain muted for some time yet. In contrast, the consumer outlook is encouraging. 2nd May 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing (Apr.) The modest drop back in the ISM manufacturing index to 50.8 in April, from 51.8, is a bit disappointing, but that April figure is still the second highest reading in the past eight months. At its... 2nd May 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The drop in India's manufacturing PMI in April provides another reminder that local industry continues to face significant headwinds. 2nd May 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Oil leads the way up Oil prices continued to rally in April as sentiment improved further on the back of hopes that the oil market will rebalance later in the year. Indeed, better economic data out of China supported the... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Almost all news is good news Commodities rallied further in the past week, notably oil, helped by positive investor sentiment and further dollar weakness. Gold and (particularly) silver were again among the biggest gainers... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Slowdown not all due to Brexit fears GDP data released this week suggests that Brexit uncertainty probably weighed on growth in Q1. But other factors were at play too. And recent surveys generally indicate that the impact of Brexit... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Putting the retail sector’s productivity problem in context The retail sector’s productivity performance has been better than it has often been given credit for. That said, with the sector particularly hard-hit by the new National Living Wage, boosting... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Positive capital markets drivers will support further yield falls A solid debt market and a high volume of capital chasing commercial property will keep bidding on prime assets competitive. Coupled with improving prospects for rental growth, we believe that this... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
