Capital Daily Would further US labour market strength be good for the S&P 500? 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Adjustment to low oil prices not going to plan Although the economy likely grew strongly in the first quarter, beneath the surface we aren’t convinced that the economy is still struggling to adjust to lower energy prices, despite the weaker... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Anti-immigration stance would hurt Austria The first round result of Austria’s presidential election is testament to how polarising the issue of immigration has become in European politics. However, a crackdown on immigration could deny... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Headwinds restraining GDP growth will fade in H2 Some of the headwinds that restricted first-quarter GDP growth to a paltry 0.5% annualised will fade in the second half of this year. But barring a miracle second-quarter rebound, it appears that GDP... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q1, Prov.) The acceleration in Mexican GDP growth in the first quarter of this year, to 2.7% y/y, is encouraging but, with a number of headwinds facing the economy, we suspect that growth will slow over the... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Kenya Consumer Prices (Apr.) While inflation is picking up in most of Africa, April’s CPI data showed that price pressures are weakening in Kenya. We expect that this will allow the Central Bank of Kenya to cut rates by 50bp... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How much of Q1 slowdown is due to Brexit fears? Softening activity indicators and the moderation in quarterly GDP growth from 0.6% in Q4 to 0.4% in Q1 have fuelled a number of warnings, notably from Chancellor George Osborne and the OECD, that the... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone’s strong start won’t be sustained Q1’s surprisingly strong gain in euro-zone GDP provided a solid start to the year. But we suspect that the figures overstate the economy’s underlying pace of expansion and there is a clear risk of a... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Corporate bond spreads widen Worries about a rise in defaults pushed corporate bond spreads up sharply in April. Meanwhile, the rally in China’s equity markets came to a halt. 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Mar.) March activity data for Chile were a mixed bag, but taken together with last month’s strong figures, they suggest that GDP growth picked up to over 2.0 %y/y in Q1. Nonetheless, we don’t expect the... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC more dovish, but rate cuts still some way off The statement by the Russian central bank following its decision to leave the one-week repo rate on hold today was dovish, but less so than what the markets seem to have expected. The Council’s... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Currencies gain, but Mozambique struggles The performance of African markets was mixed this month. Currencies in most major economies strengthened, but Mozambique’s ongoing debt scandal has caused US dollar debt yields there to jump. 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Growth in Sri Lanka to slow despite IMF deal The IMF today announced that it has reached a staff-level agreement with Sri Lanka on a three-year US$1.5bn loan. The deal should help Sri Lanka avoid a balance of payments crisis and stabilise... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth edged up in Q1, and is set to recover further We estimate that global growth nudged up from 2.0% annualised in Q4 last year to 2.5% in Q1, largely due to a recovery in China. While there was a sharp decline in US GDP growth, its economy should... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Could Asia’s central banks get unconventional? There have been a number of suggestions recently that some central banks in Emerging Asia, namely in Taiwan and Korea, might be about to adopt some of the unconventional policy measures that are being... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Medium-term prospects remain bright The recent rebounds in many commodity prices have been stronger than even we had anticipated and may be premature. We would not therefore be surprised – or that worried – to see some temporary pull... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
