Medium-term prospects remain bright

The recent rebounds in many commodity prices have been stronger than even we had anticipated and may be premature. We would not therefore be surprised – or that worried – to see some temporary pull-backs in the coming months, notably for oil, perhaps triggered by the resumption of interest rate hikes in the US. Nonetheless, the rebounds have been consistent with the big picture of constrained supply, recovering demand and improving sentiment that we expect to lift prices further over the medium term. We are therefore happy to reiterate our end-2017 forecasts of US$60 per barrel for both Brent and WTI crude, $6,000 per tonne for copper, and $1,400 per ounce for gold.