Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) March’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that economic growth remains fairly slow . While the ECB has since expanded its stimulus measures, we doubt that this will boost money and lending growth... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Fall in inflation could prompt cut to 1.75% We suspect that news of the sharp fall in underlying inflation in the first quarter will be enough to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates from 2.00% to 1.75% at its policy... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Apr.) The fall in small business confidence in April reflects seasonal patterns. Still, the survey suggests that economic activity remains sluggish. 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1) The sharp fall in underlying inflation to 1.5% in the first quarter is a game-changer for the Reserve Bank of Australia and supports our long-held view that interest rates will fall from 2.0% now to 1... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s bond sale lifts local markets The Argentine government’s return to global capital markets after a 15-year hiatus was met with a surge of investor optimism and coincided with a rally in its financial markets. Meanwhile, the... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Feb) The annual rate of house price growth held firm in February. But with conditions in place for housing demand to increase further this year, and inventory levels set to stay low, we expect the rate of... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global monetary conditions still loose Broad money and credit have been expanding steadily in most major advanced economies in recent months. They should continue to hold up well for the foreseeable future as global monetary policy will... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC a little more cautious, but further rate cuts likely The statement accompanying today’s MPC meeting in Hungary was a little more cautious than we had expected, but even so, with inflation likely to stay subdued and growth weakening, we think there’s... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Second-quarter GDP growth likely to be dismal Although incoming data indicate that first-quarter GDP grew by as much as 2.8% annualised, we doubt this marks the beginning of an upturn in economic growth prospects. Economic growth in that quarter... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How will the contrast in Fed and BoJ policies affect the markets? 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) & Consumer Conf. (Apr.) The weakness in non-defence durable goods orders and the dip in consumer confidence do not chang eour view that, after a disappointing first quarter, GDP growth will rebound in the second, helped by a... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Autocatalyst demand to boost PGM prices In other publications we have addressed at length how falling mine supply should boost platinum group metals (PGMs) prices. But this is only part of the story. Developments on the demand side are... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Has the rally in zinc prices got further to go? In recent years, zinc has periodically been a favourite of investors, based on the premise of falling supply as a result of mine closures. However, earlier price rallies have fizzled out, primarily... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka holds rates, but hikes likely soon The central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) today held its deposit and lending rates at 6.5% and 8.0%, respectively. But with credit growing rapidly and core inflation high, we expect rate hikes to come back... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Mar.) Gold imports by both China and India slumped in the first quarter. While imports have been undeniably weak so far in 2016, we expect buying to pick up later in the year in part due to the release of... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is helicopter money an option in Japan? We believe that public spending financed permanently by central bank transfers would be a viable option to boost demand and lift price pressures. However, until the existing policy measures are... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
