Global Central Bank Watch What next for negative rates? Negative policy rates have come under attack in recent months, but most of the criticisms look overdone. We still think Japan will cut its policy rate further in June or July, while also stepping up... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: IMF takes centre stage Events this month have underlined the continuing importance of the IMF for many economies across Africa. On 6 th April the government of Angola requested an IMF bailout to help stabilise an economy... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q1 1st Estimate) The very modest 0.5% annualised gain in first-quarter GDP, which represents a significant slowdown on the already moderate 1.4% gain in the final quarter of last year, was due to a number of headwinds... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysian ringgit rebound continues Most currencies and equity markets are up so far this month. The Malaysian ringgit has continued to rebound strongly, but political uncertainty ahead of presidential elections in the Philippines is... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Apr.) April’s fall in German consumer price inflation back to negative territory and the continued weakness of the core rate will further raise the pressure on the ECB to do more to hit its inflation target... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor BRICs drive pick-up in EM growth Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth has turned a corner, with the BRIC economies leading the way. Looking ahead, we think that the BRICs will continue to drive a recovery in EM growth. We expect... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Don’t get carried away with Saudi Arabia’s reform plans Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has created a buzz with his ambitious plans to transform the Kingdom’s economy, but we would caution against getting carried away. The... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Apr.) April’s rise in euro-zone business and consumer confidence does not change the bigger picture that growth in the euro-zone appears to be slowing. 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update German retail rents to rise despite moderation in consumption growth German consumption growth is set to moderate this year and next. However, due to demographic factors, prospects for retail sales in the main cities seem stronger than for Germany as a whole. Combined... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide (Apr.) and Land Registry (Mar.) House Price House price growth in April slowed according to the Nationwide index, while the Land Registry’s data showed a month-on-month fall in prices during March. With the economic outlook more subdued and... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is sterling’s recent rally here to stay? Sterling’s recent rally as expectations of a Brexit have fallen suggests that the pound will rise further if the UK votes to remain in the EU. But there are reasons why the rally is unlikely to last. 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q1) The RICS Commercial Property Survey reported that occupier and investor demand moderated but remained positive in the first quarter. That said, the headline figures masked some sectoral variation... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) This month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) in Emerging Europe were a mixed bag, providing early signs that Poland’s economy strengthened sharply at the start of Q2, while the other Central... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s COPOM to tread carefully Brazil’s COPOM left its benchmark Selic interest rate unchanged at 14.25% yesterday and, while the case for monetary easing is growing, the accompanying statement reinforced our view that interest... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will be forced to ease more before long The Bank of Japan’s decision to forgo additional easing today came as a major disappointment to markets and resulted in a sharp appreciation of the yen. Amid sluggish growth and moderating price... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Assessing the impact of a strong monsoon Early forecasts of a stronger-than-normal monsoon in India this year have raised hopes of a boost to GDP growth and a drop in inflation as agricultural production gets ramped up. But the early... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
