Bank of Japan Watch Bank to announce more easing this week Headwinds to the Bank of Japan’s efforts to lift inflation have intensified in recent weeks. We expect the Bank to ease more at the upcoming meeting, most probably by increasing asset purchases and... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Uncertainty starts to weigh With only two months left until the referendum, we will be publishing a weekly Brexit Watch to help clients keep track of all the latest developments. Evidence that the economy is beginning to suffer... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Investor enthusiasm drives prices higher The prices of almost all commodities have risen this week, fuelled by the ongoing improvement in investor sentiment and renewed weakness in the US dollar. The rally in oil prices was perhaps somewhat... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) Preliminary business surveys released earlier today suggest that manufacturing activity in advanced economies weakened further in April. This would be consistent with slow, but positive economic... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar rally isn’t a major threat to GDP growth Canada’s economy certainly has its growth challenges ahead, but the recent rally in the Canadian dollar isn’t a major threat to the economic growth outlook, partly because it has been accompanied by a... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slowdown in GDP growth won’t be sustained According to our calculations, economic growth slowed to only 0.8% annualised in the first quarter. (Data due on Thursday). That slowdown doesn’t worry us, however, even though economic growth has... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will a rise in saving slow the consumer recovery? The fall in the household saving ratio to a record low in 2015 might suggest that recent robust consumer spending growth is unsustainable and that the saving ratio will need to rise again. But the... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Gilt yields to rise regardless of referendum outcome It is possible that an out vote in the EU referendum could push up mortgage interest rates. But if it did, we suspect any rise would be modest and that the drivers of that rise would not be those... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Retail Sales (Feb.) The rise in the core inflation rate in March, to 2.1% from 1.9%, was stronger than expected but appears mainly due to the past depreciation of the Canadian dollar. As the weakness in the economy takes... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will bank worries prevent further ECB rate cuts? 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Both sides overstate effect of Brexit on trade At the heart of most of last week’s wealth of Brexit-related publications and comments was the issue of what will happen to trade if the UK votes to leave. As with pretty much all aspects of the... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontiers ask the IMF to come to their rescue A number of frontier markets have turned to the IMF for financial support over the past few months in order to counter strains in their balance of payments. Angola has formally opened negotiations... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) The small fall in April’s euro-zone PMI suggests that the weakening of the region’s activity surveys this year has been due to more than just concerns about overseas demand, which have eased recently... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Are Asia’s policymakers running out of fiscal firepower? Most governments in Emerging Asia have room to support their economies by loosening fiscal policy further in the event that growth continues to disappoint. However, there are a few countries, namely... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is the stronger yen actually a boon for Japan? The recent strengthening of the yen will lower prices of imported goods and provide some support to flagging private consumption. However, lower import prices provide a further headwind to the Bank of... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
