DM Valuations Monitor US equity valuations still not that stretched The US stock market has fared well over the past month, with the S&P 500 now not far below its record high. Admittedly, many observers continue to predict that the index will slump again at some point... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update 5 questions on Argentina’s return to the bond market Argentina’s government will today issue dollar-denominated bonds on the global capital market for the first time in over fifteen years. In this Update , we answer five key questions about the debt... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What does China’s currency policy imply for the US dollar? 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Prices rebound in April Having wobbled in late March, most commodity prices have rebounded of late. Stronger economic data for March out of China has assuaged some concerns about demand and more than offset the negative... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update “Basically stable” renminbi in quiet retreat The renminbi’s continued trade-weighted decline is probably best seen as an opportunistic response by Chinese policymakers to a period of broad dollar weakness rather than reflecting a policy to... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Getting used to lower growth Global growth was sluggish in the first quarter, but it is likely to pick up a bit during the rest of the year. A policy-induced rebound in China and recovery in the prices of key commodities should... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver playing catch-up with gold After lagging behind for the past year, the price of silver is finally catching up with that of gold, moving towards our year-end forecast of $19.5 per ounce. Its higher industrial profile, coupled... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Mar.) Housing starts disappointed in March, with a substantial 8.8% drop over the month. And building permits are down to their lowest level in a year. But with mortgage applications rising at a healthy... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the world economy nearing “stall speed”? The IMF warned last week that the global economic recovery was at risk of slowing to “stall speed”, below which a recession becomes inevitable. However, there is little theoretical or empirical... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) Russia’s activity data for March were weaker than in February, as expected, but the broad trend is still that the slump in the economy is easing. GDP probably contracted by around 2.0% y/y over Q1 as... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Signs of a rebound in Q1 A cyclical rebound appears to be underway. Admittedly, there is no sign of a turnaround in either the official GDP figures or Q1 industrial production. But evidence elsewhere points to a policy-driven... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will the Fed let inflation overshoot? Inflation is going to overshoot the Fed’s 2% target, let’s be clear. While we expect Fed officials to be fairly relaxed about that, however, we don’t think it means interest rates won’t rise at all... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Apr.) April’s rise in German ZEW investor sentiment reflected easing concerns about the global economic environment. But perceptions of current conditions in Germany have weakened, supporting our view that... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Ukraine still needs the IMF At first sight, the sharp fall in Ukraine’s current account deficit over the past few years suggests that the economy’s external vulnerabilities have diminished significantly. But that masks the fact... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Mar.) The disappointing Polish activity data for March suggest that overall GDP growth may have slipped below 3% y/y. However, we don’t think this marks the start of a sharp slowdown; indeed, we expect... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Monetary policy loosening in Korea more likely than not The Bank of Korea (BoK) today left its policy rate unchanged at a record low of 1.50% , b ut with the economy still in a fragile state, monetary policy loosening looks to be on the cards in the coming... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
