Signs of a rebound in Q1

A cyclical rebound appears to be underway. Admittedly, there is no sign of a turnaround in either the official GDP figures or Q1 industrial production. But evidence elsewhere points to a policy-driven pick-up, supported in particular by property and infrastructure investment. With both fiscal and monetary policy still being loosened, the economy is likely to accelerate in the months ahead. One point worth noting is that this may not show up in the official GDP data, which failed to capture the slowdown last year in the first place. But other more reliable indicators, including other countries’ exports to China, should confirm the revival in demand.