Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Mar.) According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary aluminium output grew by 0.7% y/y in March, although it was down on the same quarter a year earlier. 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Ditching of Chinese subsidies unlikely to rein in exports China’s decision to scrap its export subsidy programme will do little to help overcome huge surpluses of aluminium and steel, or to allay concerns about it dumping excess production on world markets... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will further Fed hikes trigger a renewed surge in the dollar? Although we expect the Fed to raise interest rates faster than most anticipate over the next two years, the resulting appreciation of the dollar should be much more modest than last year. Following a... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Mar.) World Steel Association (WSA) data, released today, show that global steel output fell by 0.5% year on year in March, up from declines of 3.3% and 7.1% in January and February respectively. That said... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed to leave door open to June rate hike Despite the marked improvement in financial conditions and fading fears over China’s economic outlook, the Fed is very unlikely to raise interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes on... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Mexico: time to throw in the towel? A combination of tighter monetary and fiscal policy will offset the benefits of a weaker peso and keep the brakes on Mexico’s economy over the coming years. Nonetheless, we don’t think it’s time to... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook House price inflation to converge on earnings growth House price inflation has strengthened a little since our previous Analyst. But the economy has lost a little momentum and forward-looking demand indicators, such as buyer enquiries, are easing... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investors turn positive on agriculturals again After the combined net-short position in eight of the main agriculturals we cover rose to a record level at the start of March, investor confidence has rebounded. Indeed, a weaker US dollar and more... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Market Survey (Q1) Despite a fall in the pace of construction activity in the first quarter, workload balances in the commercial sector are above the survey’s average. That said, forward-looking indicators, suggest that... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: CBE’s deficit financing adds to pressures on the pound The Egyptian government seems to be increasingly reliant on the central bank to finance the budget deficit. If this persists, inflation is likely to remain elevated and downward pressure on the pound... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Feb./Mar.) Today’s UK labour market data added to recent signs that the economy slowed at the start of 2016. Accordingly, interest rates look set to be on hold for a while yet. 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Feb) As the slack in the labour market has fallen substantially, it is perhaps not surprising that job creation has slowed. And for now the data do not point to a turning point in the rental market, but... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.) Inflation eased a touch in March, but we still expect that it will rise over the duration of 2016. The current pause was mainly the result of strengthening rand. 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Stronger dollars a major threat to outlook The recent rise of the Australian and New Zealand dollars will prevent GDP growth from strengthening this year and will keep core inflation at uncomfortably low levels. This is particularly true in... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Mar.) The slump in export values is weighing on firms’ revenues and may undermine their willingness to invest and lift wages. 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
