US Data Response Industrial Prod’n (Mar.) & Consumer Conf. (Apr.) At first glance, the reported declines in industrial production and consumer confidence suggest the recovery is losing momentum. But the remarkable turnaround in the activity surveys points to a mini... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More than meets the eye to new Bank Indonesia policy rate Bank Indonesia today unveiled some adjustments to its policy regime which it hopes will prompt commercial banks to lower their lending rates. If the moves are a success, they should lead to an... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What might the Grand Paris project mean for CBD property? The Grand Paris Express project will reduce travel times between Paris’ major hubs and will support urban renewal in a number of regeneration areas around the city, including new office hubs. By... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Feb.) Even after allowing for the sharp decline in the value of petroleum sales, the 3.3% m/m drop in manufacturing sales in February was twice as large as expected, with the drop in sales volumes hinting... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Some things to keep in mind about Q1 GDP The strength of recent monthly GDP data has prompted some forecasters to revise up their growth forecasts for this year as a whole. But predictions of an acceleration in growth are, to our minds at... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit fears not weighing heavily on bank lending It is generally accepted that the main channel through which uncertainty ahead of the EU referendum will hit the economy is the negative impact on business investment. But on the whole, last week’s... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro’s stubbornness will drag on growth While we’re still hopeful that the divergence between US and euro-zone monetary policy will help to bring the euro lower against the US dollar, the combination of the Fed’s recent dovishnessand hints... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy to benefit from slightly looser fiscal policy Fiscal policy in advanced economies is set to be loosened this year for the first time since 2010. Governments in the US and Canada have increased spending while budget deficits in many European... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese data point to robust commodity demand First-quarter Chinese economic data suggest a cyclical rebound is underway, driven by state-sector spending. The data justify some of the recent strength in commodity prices and underpin our forecast... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update German Bund yields – how low can they go? We think the yield of 10-year Bunds is unlikely to follow that of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) in turning negative, despite the fact that it came within a whisker of its historical low at the... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export decline easing off The rate at which EM exports are declining slowed markedly in February. Rising commodity prices and a rebound in China should boost exports later this year. 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Support for the price of cocoa should fade later this year The price of cocoa is likely to remain elevated in the near term due to continued supply concerns. But as output returns to normal, we think that the price will fall over the second half of the year. 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Mine supply to tighten across all precious metals Tightening mine supply is one of several factors behind our positive view on precious metals prices this year. Admittedly, for some metals like gold, mine production represents only a small fraction... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru likely to restart tightening cycle later this year The decision by Peru’s central bank to hold interest rates at 4.25% for a second consecutive month suggests that policymakers believe inflationary risks are now waning. But we doubt inflation will... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Draghi will be dovish, but ECB nearing its limits President Draghi will respond to German politicians’ recent criticism of the ECB’s ultra-loose policy at the meeting on 21st April by reiterating the Bank’s independence and stressing that more... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
