Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The fourth straight drop in the manufacturing PMI in April suggests that the continued strengthening of the yen and the disruptions caused by the Kyushu earthquakes are taking their toll on activity... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Banking sector still requires wider reform Recent policy tweaks from the RBI should help at the margins to boost bank lending, which has been moribund over the past few years. Most obviously, the 25bp rate cut this month means that the repo... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Pre-election spending splutter mostly a myth The idea that households and businesses postpone their spending ahead of a Federal election is more fallacy than fact. Admittedly, there is some evidence that the uncertainty generated by an election... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish inflation to continue easing (for now) The sharp decline in Turkish inflation since January has caught many (ourselves included) by surprise and we think the headline rate is likely to continue to fall over the rest of this year. That... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade ticks up in February The latest available data show that the volume of world trade recovered in February, fully reversing its decline in January. While the outlook for growth in the volume of world trade is fairly bleak... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary policy divergence to resume With the three major advanced economy central banks holding policy meetings this week and next, we are sticking to our view that the next year or two will see a lot more divergence between monetary... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A mixed bag for Chinese agricultural imports in Q1 The detailed Chinese import data for March indicate that import demand picked up for some agricultural commodities in the first quarter of the year. Yet imports of some other commodities continued... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Would Brexit raise mortgage rates? It is possible that an out vote in the EU referendum could push up mortgage interest rates. But if it did, we suspect any rise would be modest and that the drivers of that rise would not be those... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi dovish, but ECB nearing its limits President Draghi struck a dovish tone following the ECB’s April policy meeting and stressed that the Governing Council was prepared to offer more policy support if needed. But while we expect the... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Will Saudi Arabia flood the oil market again? Looking beyond the headlines from the failed deal in Doha over the weekend there are two interesting points which are worth considering. First, the suggestion that Saudi Arabia could turn on the taps... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rebound in oil prices is indeed a game-changer The recovery in oil prices has now taken Brent above our end-2016 forecast of $45 per barrel. We would not be surprised to see the rally pause for breath soon, but remain comfortable with our view... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor Capital outflows eased further last month on the back of fading concerns over the outlook for the renminbi and the recent tightening of controls on cross-border flows. 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Some respite for commodity producers The worst looks to be over for many EM commodity producers. Their currencies have again been among the best performers this month, helped by a continued recovery in commodity prices. The slump in... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending growth moderates Although retail spending has come off the boil in the past couple of months, the consumer recovery is on the whole holding up reasonably well. Indeed, there are few signs that Brexit uncertainty is... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rebound in oil prices supports Gulf financial markets Financial markets across the Gulf have performed well over the past month, supported by the continued recovery in oil prices. Meanwhile, Egyptian markets have been buoyed by last month’s decision by... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
