Both sides overstate effect of Brexit on trade

At the heart of most of last week’s wealth of Brexit-related publications and comments was the issue of what will happen to trade if the UK votes to leave. As with pretty much all aspects of the Brexit debate, it is wise to take both sides’ claims with a pinch of salt.

The precise gain or loss for UK exporters would depend on the exact terms of exit from the EU, as well as other “unknowns”, including the future growth rate of the EU and the ease with which the UK could negotiate new trade deals. But in our view, the big picture is that leaving the EU would not significantly harm the UK’s external sector