Although incoming data indicate that first-quarter GDP grew by as much as 2.8% annualised, we doubt this marks the beginning of an upturn in economic growth prospects. Economic growth in that quarter was boosted by a surge in energy exports, even as the devastation in the oil & gas industry went from bad to worse. Meanwhile, the improvement in non-energy exports hasn’t led to a turnaround in business investment. If the low level of business confidence is any indication of what lies ahead, then the economy’s performance this quarter will likely be dismal, with GDP growth below 1.0%.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services