Australia & New Zealand Economics Update How Lowe will interest rates go? The Reserve Bank of Australia’s new forecast that underlying inflation will remain below the 2-3% target range until mid-2018 supports our view that interest rates will soon be cut by a further 0.25%... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation to remain close to target We think that consumer price inflation held steady April as the recent slowdown in food inflation appears to have run its course. With inflation only just below the RBI's 5.0% target for March 2017... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.) Full year general government figures for 2015 show that most euro-zone countries’ fiscal positions improved last year, although Portugal and Spain still fell short of their targets. Meanwhile... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Will the US stock market run out of steam? Although the US stock market has rebounded in the past few months as the news from China has improved and the dollar has weakened, we doubt it will power ahead for three key reasons. First, we expect... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Brexit uncertainty starting to take its toll Recent data have brought more concrete signs that uncertainty ahead of the EU referendum on 23rd June is starting to weigh on the economy . GDP in Q1 grew by a modest 0.4% on the quarter and the... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to remain cautious ahead of referendum A policy change looks very unlikely this month. Not only will the MPC not want to rock the boat ahead of the EU referendum, but the economy still does not look strong enough to warrant a tightening of... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the worst now over for the manufacturing sector? While the drag on GDP growth from the manufacturing slump may fade in the second half of this year, the sector is unlikely to make any major positive contribution to the economy for some time yet... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Further signs that the Saudi economy is struggling Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy continued to slow sharply at the start of this year, with the non-oil sector suffering under the weight of fiscal austerity. The risks to our long... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Oil price rally could be sowing seeds of its own destruction The recent rally in oil prices has been stronger than even we had anticipated. However, prices have already fallen back slightly from their recent peak and we would not be surprised to see some... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC remains cautious, Czech MPC stays dovish The Romanian MPC once again sounded relatively hawkish at this afternoon’s press conference, and we remain comfortable with our view that monetary policy will be tightened later this year to take some... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation picks up Consumer price inflation is likely to have risen in April to the highest since 2013 on the back of a further increase in pork prices. This may trigger concerns about a re-run of the pork-powered... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack A note of caution on the recent price rallies The prices of most industrial metals rose in April, although prices have eased back in the last week. A weaker US dollar, as market expectations of US interest rate rises were scaled back, was a key... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Collapse of capital inflows a big blow to economy The flow of foreign capital into Nigeria has slowed to a trickle. This will exacerbate the country’s serious balance of payment problems and further depress investment in an economy that is starved of... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Apr.) The fall in the Markit/CIPS services survey in April suggests that economic growth will soften further in the near term, perhaps until uncertainty surrounding the EU referendum is resolved. 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Strength of growth in Q1 unlikely to be sustained Euro-zone GDP rose by a healthy 0.6% in Q1, easily outpacing the expansions in the US and UK and following disappointingly slow growth in the second half of 2015. But the data look strong relative to... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
