UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Uncertainty hits business surveys The gloomy tone of this week’s PMI data provided further concrete evidence that the uncertainty generated ahead of the EU referendum is weighing on activity. As with last week’s GDP data, other... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Investor exuberance wanes For the most part, commodity prices fell this week. This was not too surprising as the prices of many commodities, particularly the more industrial ones, appeared to have moved ahead of fundamentals... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) The modest decline of 2,100 in employment in suggests that the economy is still struggling to cope with lower oil prices. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.1%. We still believe that the worst... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Thoughts on the rise of political risks in EMs From Brazil to Turkey, and Malaysia to South Africa, political risks are rising in emerging markets. The immediate triggers for unrest vary from country to country but there are some common themes –... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Incoming data point to second-quarter pick-up The incoming data were fairly positive last week. The rebound in the non-manufacturing surveys more than made up for the continuing softness in the manufacturing surveys, while the sharp recovery in... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack March data show spike in Transactions This month’s data provided evidence of the extent to which buyers have brought forward purchases ahead of the stamp duty surcharge. And given the size of the boost to activity, transactions may be... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack US to regain momentum, euro-zone to slow The US economy looks set to regain some momentum in the second quarter after a weak performance in Q1 as the drags from previous dollar strength and the slump in oil prices continue to fade. But... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Apr.) Inflation in Brazil and Chile edged down last month and we expect it to continue its downward trend in both countries over the course of this year. 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The more modest 160,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in April will have caught a few people out, after all the consensus forecast was as high as 200,000, but the out-turn was broadly in line with our own... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Denmark and Sweden industrial rents set to outgrow Norway Norwegian manufacturing sector activity has slowed due to the drop in the oil price, whereas in Denmark and Sweden, output continues to grow steadily. Across the 2016-19 period, this will support... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Resilient sentiment suggests economic gloom overdone The economy seems to be on a worrying downward trajectory. But if activity were about to fall off a cliff, we might expect forward-looking measures of confidence and expectations to be tumbling and... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EC’s sober forecasts are still too optimistic Last week’s EC Spring forecasts presented a pretty uninspiring picture of the euro-zone economy’s prospects. Despite the unprecedented degree of monetary policy support, growth is expected to slow... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Precious metals rally on dollar weakness Precious metals prices rallied in April, flattered by the recent dollar weakness. We have been positive on the outlook for precious metals since the start of the year owing to the prospect of lower... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Would a tax on firms’ cash revive investment? The proposed tax on corporate cash holdings may shift firms’ behaviour somewhat but is not as groundbreaking as it sounds. The government already provides tax incentives to encourage investment... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Is the Philippines about to shoot itself in the foot? The Philippines has been one of the region’s few economic success stories over the past few years. But with the controversial Rodrigo Duterte riding high in the polls ahead of presidential elections... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Get used to low underlying inflation Our success in forecasting ahead of everyone else that the Reserve Bank of Australia would cut interest rates below 2% is mainly because we realised that the legacy of a prolonged period of below... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
