Global Economics Focus How big a deal would Brexit be for the world economy? If the UK votes to leave the EU, there would probably be some negative fallout for the UK itself and other European economies due to the resulting uncertainty about their future economic relationship... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Where next for the Philippines? Rodrigo Duterte, the mayor of the fourth largest city in the Philippines, looks to have won today’s presidential election by a comfortable margin. Given how little has been said on the campaign trail... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Ireland’s new Government keep the recovery going? The formation of a new Irish government has removed some short-term political uncertainty. And the outlook for the economy over the coming years is fairly bright. That said, the government can do... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) The weaker-than-expected Mexican inflation figure for April, of 2.5% y/y, down from 2.6% y/y in March, means that the MPC is unlikely to raise interest rates at the next few policy meetings. But with... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rising unemployment adds to political risk The rise of unemployment to a 12-year high is another grim milestone for South Africa. And with municipal elections coming up in August, today’s data may embolden populist figures hoping to capitalise... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity import demand remains robust The sharp year-on-year decline in China’s import values in April has attracted some negative headlines but largely reflects distortions around the timing of the Lunar New Year and the slump in... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from EMs declined sharply in April to a 10-month low of a little over $10bn. Outflows from China remained relatively low compared to the past year, while... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi reshuffle unlikely to result in drastic change The government reshuffle in Saudi Arabia announced over the weekend is unlikely to herald a major shift in economic policy, although it may strengthen the Kingdom’s commitment to its oil market... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Apr.) House prices fell in April according to the Halifax index. And with economic sentiment cooling, house prices high and demand growth slowing, we see house price growth softening further over the... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Mar.) Turkish industrial production data for March indicate that the economy grew at a faster pace in Q1 than in Q4, but that the economy lost momentum towards the end of the quarter. What’s more, the... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Apr.) If we are right in assuming that the Kyushu earthquake dampened sentiment in April, an improvement in coming months seems likely. 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade & FX Reserves (Apr.) Trade growth was always likely to slow sharply in April after the seasonal surge in March. More positively, the contraction in both exports and imports wasn't as deep last month as it has been over... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Mar.) Wage growth rose sharply in March, but only because of strong bonus payments. Growth in base pay weakened, and the ongoing spring wage negotiations suggest that the tight labour market is not about to... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Rising debt adds to economic vulnerabilities Kenya’s high public debt should stabilise as a share of GDP if – as we expect – growth stays strong. But a sharp slowdown or a run on the currency could easily put the debt ratio on an unsustainbale... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
