The weaker-than-expected Mexican inflation figure for April, of 2.5% y/y, down from 2.6% y/y in March, means that the MPC is unlikely to raise interest rates at the next few policy meetings. But with inflation still likely to edge up over the second half of the year, and the Fed set to resume its tightening cycle, we still expect Mexican interest rates to rise by more than the consensus expects this year.
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