UK Economics Focus Is the economic slowdown about more than Brexit? Brexit concerns have not been the only driver of the recent slowdown, suggesting that we should not expect a particularly big rebound in activity if the UK votes to stay in the EU in June. At the same... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Buyers continue to outnumber sellers Demand for homes is rising thanks to mortgage rates that are close to record lows and an improving labour market. Mortgage applications for home purchase in April were at their highest level since... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A sharp increase in demand for crude from refineries helped to reduce the amount of crude in storage last week. 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: taking stock of the Pemex bailout The Mexican government’s bailout of the country’s state-owned energy company Pemex does not have major fiscal implications. The costs are manageable and non-recurring, so should not require... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What do the low level of lettings instructions tell us? The relatively subdued level of new lettings instructions is a reminder that, despite its high profile in recent quarters, BTL lending is only one measure of the health of the private rented sector... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update London construction: risk or vote of confidence? London’s active office development pipeline has returned to past peaks, leaving the market vulnerable to an economic downturn. But so close to the EU referendum, we think that it is a sign that... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is a pick-up in wage growth on the horizon? Employment growth in advanced economies has so far remained fairly resilient in the face of weaker global growth and we think labour markets will continue to tighten gradually in the coming months... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek debt talks won’t provide much relief The compromises reached by Greece and its creditors this week should allow the first bailout review to finally be completed and have prompted a favourable market response. But the first discussions... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stockbuild in China reflects optimism about demand Since the start of 2016, stocks of all the LME metals have fallen, while SHFE inventories of the same metals have risen. We think this trend reflects two main factors. First, optimism that physical... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland holds rates but further tightening will be needed Iceland’s central bank kept its interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting. But with price pressures set to pick up in the second half of the year, further tightening will be needed. 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) Disappointing official industrial figures in March confirmed that the sector has slipped back into recession, leaving GDP growth precariously unbalanced. 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export recovery continues The rate at which EM exports are declining slowed sharply in March. We expect that higher commodity prices and an improvement in China’s economy will see export values return to growth later this year... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s rate pause to continue The Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.50% today came as no surprise. With the economy exiting deflation and growth still on track to come in around 3% in 2016... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (May) The rebound in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in May appears to be a result of the RBA’s decision to cut interest rates last week, but history suggests this support may only be temporary. 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland holds rates but further tightening will be needed Iceland’s central bank kept its interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting. But with price pressures set to pick up in the second half of the year, further tightening will be needed. 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
