India Economics Update Import weakness to keep trade deficit in check India’s monthly trade deficit narrowed to a five-year low in April. With a number of factors likely to keep commodity imports in check, the overall current account position is unlikely to return as a... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch Latest OPEC Report offers no surprises Although OPEC production rose last month, the increase was contained by numerous supply disruptions. This suggests that, once the outages have been resolved, output will grow more strongly, as... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil up on supply outages, metals down on demand fears The stronger US dollar and renewed concerns about the robustness of the credit-led recovery in China’s economy weighed on metals prices this week. However, oil benefited from the disruptions to supply... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How will the MPC respond to the EU referendum? The MPC’s attempt to base its forecasts on the UK remaining in the EU suggests that it believes trade-weighted sterling will rise by around 5% on a vote to stay. But it also implies that it doesn’t... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed falling further behind the curve While we didn’t think that the more modest 160,000 increase in payroll employment in April necessarily ruled out the possibility of a June rate hike by the Fed, the increasing probability that... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Market turmoil following “Brexit” may be much less than feared 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) & Consumer Confidence (May) The retail sales and consumer confidence reports show that recent claims of the demise of the US consumer have been greatly exaggerated. Thanks to a massive 0.9% m/m gain in control sales in April and... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly More survey evidence of bleak growth prospects The dangerous wildfires that broke out in Alberta earlier this month haven’t changed the dismal outlook for economic growth this year. As the increasing amount of survey evidence indicates, the much... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Slowdown isn’t just about Brexit This week’s dismal trade, industrial production and construction data has further intensified concerns that Brexit uncertainty is having an effect on activity. Nonetheless, they also highlight that... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Commodities Watch - WASDE more bearish than bullish for agriculturals In this new monthly publication, we intend to focus on key developments in agricultural commodities as well as draw on the more in-depth analysis from our Energy and Metals services. This month, we... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone growth will slow from here Despite the downward revision to Q1 euro-zone GDP, the 0.5% quarterly gain still got the year off to a solid start. But there are good reasons to expect growth to be slower in Q2 and beyond. And the... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Is Thailand about to boil over again? Thailand’s already disappointing recovery could be derailed by yet another flare-up of its longstanding political crisis this year, with the controversial draft constitution presenting a clear... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will copper continue to underperform oil? We expect the recent under-performance of copper prices relative to oil to be reversed over the remainder of the year. Oil prices have been boosted by supply outages which should prove temporary... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Construction Output (Mar.) March’s construction figures confirmed the sector’s recovery has gone into reverse, leaving GDP growth precariously unbalanced. What’s more, recent evidence points to continuing weakness in the near... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1 Prov.) While Q1’s 0.5% quarterly gain in euro-zone GDP provides a reasonably solid start to the year, there are good reasons to expect growth to slow in Q2 and beyond. 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1) Hong Kong’s economy contracted in Q1, with output dragged down by falls in exports and household spending. We don’t expect a major rebound in the quarters ahead as interest rates rise further and the... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
