US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Ind. Prod (Apr.) The 0.4% m/m increase in consumer prices was the biggest gain since February 2013 and reflects primarily a strong rebound in energy prices. More generally, the rebound in commodity prices we’ve seen... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will rising Treasury yields rattle EMs next year? We now think that the 10-year US Treasury yield will rise by about 100bp in 2017. Nonetheless, unlike previous occassions when it has risen sharply, we doubt that it will lead to a crisis in emerging... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investors remain broadly positive Commodity price indices have risen in the last month, encouraged by the rally in oil prices. Although we are positive on the medium-term outlook for industrial commodity prices, we would caution that... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Has the threat of deflation disappeared? Fears of deflation have eased since the beginning of the year as oil prices have rebounded and global growth has stabilised. However, the appreciation of the euro and yen and continued weakness of... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French strikes darken the economic outlook This week’s French protests over a watered down labour market law highlight just how hard it will be to reform the economy. This suggests that France’s economic weakness will be prolonged... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Sentiment towards precious metals continues to improve Precious metals prices rallied last month, flattered by the recent US dollar weakness. Investors in the futures market added to their net-long positions, but the recent mixed news on the health of the... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Apr.) April’s rise does not alter the fact that housing starts have failed to deliver any sustained growth over the past year. However, with housing demand rising gradually and builders growing more... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.) Foreigners continued to pull money out of China last month. But a further slowdown in the pace of external debt deleveraging helped to keep capital outflows manageable. 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Can the rest of MENA weather the slowdown in the Gulf? Economic growth in the Gulf countries has slowed sharply in recent months and this has raised concerns of negative spillovers into the other MENA economies. In this Watch, we argue that, for most... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Mar.) While the euro-zone trade surplus widened in March, this reflected a drop in the value of imports rather than export strength. Subdued global demand growth and the recent appreciation of the euro... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Apr.) April’s fall in CPI inflation merely reflects erratic Easter effects unwinding and is unlikely to be the start of a renewed downward trend. But the big picture is that price pressures in the economy... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Can Tsai rescue Taiwan’s economy? When Tsai Ing-wen takes over as Taiwan’s next president on 20th May she will inherit an economy that is struggling in the face of falling property prices, rising competition from Chinese companies and... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What’s going on with EM currencies? After staging a decent recovery this year, almost all EM currencies have weakened against the US dollar so far this month. Some may weaken a little further, but we think a large sell-off is unlikely. 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q1) The slowdown in Czech GDP in Q1, to 3.1% y/y from 4.0% y/y, confirms that last year’s bumper growth rates were temporary. But the economy is still strong and today’s figures, coming alongside... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Tax amendments another success for Modi government Recent amendments to the tax treaty between India and Mauritius - the terms of which have made Mauritius the leading source of foreign investment into India - are likely to bring more benefits than... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
