Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia: NT outlook subdued, but LT prospects improving Growth in the Tunisian economy is likely to pick up in the coming quarters following a difficult 2015, but we think the recovery will, in the near-term, be weak. Medium-term prospects are brighter and... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What would Brexit mean for Eastern Europe? With one month to go to the UK’s referendum on whether to remain in or leave the EU, concerns are growing in some quarters that a “Brexit” vote could harm Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). As things... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s metals import demand remained strong in April The volume of China’s metals imports generally eased back last month from their March highs, but were still buoyant. With copper stocks starting to fall, signs of a cyclical pick-up in the economy and... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May) The euro-zone Composite PMI edged down in May despite rises in Germany and France, suggesting that growth in the rest of the euro-zone lost momentum. And with new export orders falling to a 16-month... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How do the valuations of US and European equities stack up? Is the stock market in the US overvalued or undervalued relative to its counterpart in Europe? The answer largely depends on which metric is chosen and how earnings evolve. 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus US-style collapse unlikely, but house prices will still fall A US-style collapse in house prices in Australia is unlikely when lending conditions during the good times have not been as loose as in America and Australian banks are better placed to cope with the... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Apr.) Export values continued to fall sharply in April, and the further strengthening of the exchange rate suggests that the drag from falling export prices should persist for now. 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish inflation outlook dependent on krona strength The rise in Swedish inflation will prove short-lived if inflation expectations stay below 2%. In order to boost such expectations, the Riksbank must ensure that the krona does not appreciate strongly. 21st May 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Apr.) Existing home sales rose by 1.7% m/m in April – a little more than we were expecting. But the overall picture from the last year has been of only limited upward movement. And while demand for homes... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Fed jitters take some of the steam out of the rally Commodity prices fell back in the past week after the release of the minutes from the April FOMC signalled that US interest rates could yet rise as soon as next month. The markets are still only... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q1) Today’s Q1 GDP figures were far worse than we had expected. It is now likely that Nigeria’s economy will contract over the year as a whole. 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Apr.) World Steel Association (WSA) data, released this afternoon, show that global steel output rose by 0.5% year on year in April. However, after sharp falls in January and February, global steel output... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Supply disruptions fuel oil price rally Oil prices have continued to rally over the last month, especially the US benchmark WTI, which has been boosted by the disruptions to supply in Canada. Indeed, these outages have more than offset the... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Higher energy prices to lift headline inflation Our central theme that the Fed will be forced to raise rates much more aggressively than markets expect continues to unfold. The two deflationary shocks of 2015 – the surge in the dollar and the slump... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update A bumpy ride ahead New buyer enquiries in London fell sharply in both March and April, as did house price expectations. With house prices already very high, the data point to a sharp slowdown in price growth and... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
