Global Economics Update Five quick points on Brent at $50 The recovery in oil prices should be a net positive for the global economy but is not without its downsides, including the support it might provide to the hawks at the Fed. 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am currencies rattled more than most Currencies across Latin America have been caught up in the EM-wide sell-off in recent weeks, triggered by the US Fed signalling that a June interest rate hike is still on the table. But a combination... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s tourism sector stares into the abyss Egypt’s tourism sector has had a torrid time in recent months and last week’s crash of an EgyptAir plane has (although the cause is still unknown) reinforced security concerns. Overall, we think... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asia well-placed to cope with the Fed’s next rate hikes The US Fed looks set to increase interest rates soon, possibly as early as its June meeting, and we think it will end up hiking more than is generally expected over the next couple of years. However... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A slight easing of refinery demand was overshadowed by a sizable drop in net oil imports which weighed on the level of US crude inventories last week. 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Renminbi weakness needs to be seen in perspective The renewed slide in the renminbi against the US dollar may revive concerns about a broad-based devaluation of the Chinese currency. However, as we have argued before, context is everything, and here... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada less optimistic on economy Despite a serious downgrade to its views on second quarter economic activity, the Bank of Canada opted to hold interest rates at 0.50% today and to remain neutral on the rate outlook, clinging to its... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil: promising policies, problematic politics Events in Brazil have dominated the past month. The new government under interim president, Michel Temer, has announced a string of market-friendly policies aimed at stabilising the economy, but it... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s Eurobond reveals sanctions premium Russia's first Eurobond issue in three years showed that Western sanctions are no longer preventing the government from raising funds overseas – but by the same token, the amount raised ($1.75bn) was... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch How will the UK referendum affect global monetary policy? A vote by the UK to leave the European Union would come as a major surprise and could trigger significant market turmoil. This would probably lead to the Bank of England keeping monetary policy looser... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Watch High stocks to weigh on the nickel price, for now Having underperformed in the first quarter, the price of nickel surged in April, only to fall back more recently. The rally did, however, raise the question of whether the four-year long downturn in... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Rental and capital value growth moderate The moderation in capital value growth is likely to continue given that investment activity is subdued, and yield compression and rental value growth are both slowing. However, without a drastic... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Can UK equities weather a Brexit? We don’t think that a vote to leave the EU would have a very significant negative impact on the FTSE 100, although the effect on UK indices of smaller firms might be more pronounced. Further ahead, a... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What is going on with the renminbi? In trade-weighted terms, the renminbi has regained some lost ground recently. But all the headlinesare about it falling to multi-year lows against the dollar. This underlines the difficult position... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will EM currencies underperform as the Fed hikes? Emerging market (EM) currencies have not always underperformed during Fed tightening cycles and we do not expect them to do so this time, even as US rates rise further than is generally anticipated 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
