Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland holds rates but tightening cycle not yet over Iceland’s central bank kept its interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting. But with price pressures set to pick up in the second half of the year, further tightening will be needed. 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What difference would MSCI inclusion make? A decision to include mainland Chinese shares in MSCI’s global equity indices would cause ripples rather than waves in Shanghai and Shenzhen. 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How low could gold and silver go? If precious metals continue to take their lead from the currency markets and if the US dollar surges in response to a June or July hike from the Fed, then the price of gold could slump to as low as $1... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) The robust growth in bank loans and the monetary aggregates is another reason to believe that second-quarter GDP growth will rebound markedly. The growth rate of our M3 measure accelerated to 4.0% in... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian currencies slide on Fed fears Asian currencies fell back in May following signals from the Federal Reserve that interest rates in the US are likely to be raised this summer. 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Cons. Conf. (May) & Pers. Spending (Apr.) The decline in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to 92.6 in May, from 94.7, could potentially be the first signal that the presidential election is beginning to weigh on the economy... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary aggregates and credit continue to expand steadily For all the talk of a sharp slowdown in the global economy this year, broad money and credit have been growing at a steady pace. In advanced economies as a whole, credit has increased by around 5% y/y... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Mar.) At the national level, Case-Shiller reported that house prices rose by a modest 0.1% m/m in March. However, this weak patch in price pressures is unlikely to continue. Recent strong sales have led to... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will a new government halve Spanish unemployment? In order to cut Spanish unemployment significantly, the parties that gain power after voters return to the polls in June will need to focus on retraining the workforce. But even if schemes were... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will “A-shares” make the grade and would it matter? Were China’s “A-shares” to be included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index it may not be the big deal that some expect. A-shares would probably only be dripped into the Index, while the outlook for... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s recovery losing speed The European Commission’s measure of economic sentiment in Italy suggests that the recovery might have gained some pace in Q2. However, April’s increase in unemployment and other, more reliable... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q1 2016) The pick-up in GDP growth in the first quarter might convince some that the worst effects of the oil price shock are over, but the details showed that business investment fell further, consistent with... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q1) There is some evidence that India’s economy has picked up speed recently but today’s remarkably strong GDP data are hard to believe. 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Trade surplus positive news ahead of ratings review Today’s trade figures will provide some support for the South African rand. But the currency still faces significant headwinds given political uncertainty and the looming risk of a government credit... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Cobalt prices should benefit from strong demand We have been positive on the outlook for cobalt demand for some time but, if anything, prospects are continuing to improve. Lithium-ion batteries, the majority of which contain cobalt, are rapidly... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
