Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) & Final PMIs (May.) April’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that strong consumer spending growth in Q1 is unlikely to be repeated in Q2, and thus that GDP growth will slow. Indeed, May’s final Composite PMI also... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack House price pressures appear to be easing Interpreting the latest housing market data has been complicated by the Chancellor’s stamp duty intervention. But the most recent data from the Nationwide and Halifax lend some support to our view... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Target2 imbalances highlight uneven effects of QE The recent increase in Target2 imbalances does not suggest that the euro-zone is set for another crisis on the scale of 2011/12. However, it does suggest that countries in the core might be... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly More workers but less work While the number of people in paid employment in Japan is now the highest since 2008, hours worked have fallen to fresh lows as full-time workers have been replaced by part-time workers. With little... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly First quarter good, second quarter not so good The leap in GDP in Australia in the first quarter doesn’t significantly alter the outlook for underlying inflation, especially if we are right in thinking that economic growth will drop back below the... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Apr.) The slowdown in wage growth in April was broad-based, and we believe that the labour market will have to tighten much further to create major cost pressures. 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil inventories slipped again last week as production continued to fall. Gasoline inventories were also dragged lower by strong demand. 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation persists Euro-zone consumer price inflation remained in negative territory in May for the second consecutive month and the eighth month overall in the last 18. Fading negative energy effects mean that... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional growth to strengthen as Russia exits recession Growth in Emerging Europe is set to strengthen over the next few quarters, helped in part by the fact that the drag from Russia will ease as it exits recession. However, while the acute stage of... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB holds fire but more easing still likely The ECB is in wait and see mode while it assesses the effects of its latest policy measures, but President Draghi left the door wide open to further policy action. We continue to believe that the... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What are the risks for EMs? The wobble in financial markets in the emerging world since investors began to reassess the outlook for US monetary policy in May has been much smaller than in the past. The Fed, along with renewed... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is mortgage debt set for another dangerous boom? The improving economy, combined with mortgage interest rates that will stay low by past standards, should usher in a renewed period of growth in the stock of mortgage debt over the next few years. But... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Apr.) Brazilian industrial production rose for the second consecutive month in April and, coming on the back of yesterday’s better-than-expected GDP data, adds to signs that economic conditions are starting... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (May) The commercial construction PMI dipped once more in May adding to the signs that last year’s spike in commercial development activity will not be repeated in 2016. 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Key events to watch in the run-up to the EU referendum With the EU referendum now just three weeks away, we have highlighted below some of the key events which could potentially sway voters and move markets in the build-up to the vote. 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
