Industrial Metals Update What next for tin? The price of tin has risen since the start of the year in large part owing to temporary bottlenecks. However, we think the price gains will prove sustainable given more long-term constraints on supply... 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Weather forecasts heat up US natural gas prices Forecasts of an abnormally hot summer should continue to see strong demand for electricity supporting US gas prices. But high production and stocks will limit the upside. 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (May) Having fallen in each of the past three months, inflation in Brazil was unchanged at 9.3% y/y in May. We suspect that this is a temporary blip rather than the start of a new trend and think inflation... 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (May) In May, the value of commercial property deals fell to its second lowest reading this year. That said, we think the moderation in activity reflects pricing concerns more than the Brexit -related... 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update A new official UK house price index A combination of better input data, more detailed outputs and methodological tweaks should, in principle, make the new official UK house price index the definitive measure. But greater coverage and... 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports holding up well China’s commodity demand remained strong in May. While arbitrage opportunities and stockbuilding may explain some of the strength, it also looks likely that fiscal and monetary stimulus measures are... 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Sharp contraction very worrying sign South Africa’s ailing economy is clearly heading in the wrong direction. Today’s very disappointing Q1 GDP figure will add to pressure on the country’s credit rating. 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are ECB corporate bond purchases already a success? The prospect of ECB corporate bond purchases, which begin today, has pushed corporate bond spreads down and prompted a pick-up in issuance. However, there are several reasons to think that spreads... 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) Despite the upbeat tone of April’s industrial production figures, it is far too soon to proclaim that the sector is out of the woods, or shrugging off Brexit uncertainty. 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Apr.) The sharp slowdown in Turkish industry in April suggests that, after a relatively strong Q1, the economy probably slowed at the start of the second quarter. It looks like the boost to the... 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (May) China’s exports remain weak on the back of subdued external demand. But at the same time, recovering commodity prices and relatively resilient domestic demand are driving a recovery in import growth. 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (May) The decline in current conditions in May’s Economy Watchers Survey reflects seasonal patterns rather than a genuine deterioration. What’s more, the outlook for coming months has started to brighten... 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Drop in inflation not enough to prompt rate cut Consumer price inflation is likely to have dropped in May, but not by enough to bring it below the RBI’s 5.0% target for March 2017. 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q1 Revised) The second estimate of Q1 GDP revealed that growth was marginally stronger last quarter than initially reported. However, we expect spare capacity to shrink only slowly, so the Bank of Japan will... 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Causes and consequences of a lower US equity risk premium Several factors have probably reduced the equilibrium level of the equity risk premium (ERP) in the US to a level that is well below its long-run average. Partly as a result, the stock market is... 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
