Precious Metals Update How big a boost might “Brexit” provide to gold? There appears to be an increasingly close relationship between the gold price and the chances of the UK voting to leave the European Union, as implied by bookmakers’ odds. This is consistent, of... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Record-low gilt yields reflect global factors Last week’s fall in gilt yields to a record low probably has more to do with global concerns than a rise in the probability of a Brexit . Once the turmoil surrounding the immediate aftermath of the EU... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How UK politics could affect post-Brexit EU relationship A key uncertainty following the EU referendum on 23rd June will be the impact of the vote on domestic political factors. If the UK votes to leave, the political situation will have a key bearing on... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is a rise in inflation “baked in the cake”? It’s assumed that a rise in inflation this year is “baked in the cake”, with all economists bar one (out of 33 polled by HM Treasury) forecasting a rise in inflation between now and year-end. Butwith... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French & Italian Industrial Production (Apr.) April’s increases in French and Italian industrial production support the message from Germany that the sector had a decent month. But growth still looks set to slow in Q2 and over the rest of the... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1) & Current Account (Apr.) Growth in the Turkish economy slowed a little in Q1, but it was still extremely strong at 4.5% y/y in working day adjusted terms. Consumption remained the key driver of growth, while investment... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Upper House elections unlikely to revive Abenomics The upcoming Upper House elections should solidify the government’s position even if the LDP/New Komeito coalition fails to achieve the hoped for two-thirds majority. However, hopes that a strong... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hot housing fires up policy debate If the housing markets in both Australia and New Zealand remain strong, then our forecasts that interest rates will fall to 1.0% in Australia and to 1.75% in New Zealand would look out of reach... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Inflation set to rise, but central banks in no hurry to hike rates Inflation looks set to rise in most of Emerging Asia over the coming year, but probably not by enough to worry policy makers, who will look to keep interest rates low to support growth. 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Bouncing back Financial markets in the emerging world have rallied in recent weeks as disappointing US employment figures for May caused investors to trim their expectations for the future pace of Fed tightening... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What would “Brexit” mean for commodities? A UK vote to leave the European Union (“ Brexit ”) would presumably have a negative impact on global business and investor confidence. This in turn is likely to undermine the prices of industrial... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (May) The modest rise in Mexican inflation in May, to 2.6% y/y from 2.5% y/y in April, in itself is unlikely to have much of a bearing on the central bank’s rate setting meeting later this month given that... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold rebounds as US real yields hit one-year low The gold price has rallied this week as expectations of a June rate hike by the Fed have been abandoned. However, while we expect that the Fed will resume its tightening later in the year, real... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Low inflation to persist almost everywhere Headline inflation will rebound in many countries in the coming months as the effects of the slump in oil prices drop out of the annual comparison. But the era of very low inflation is likely to... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor “Brexit” poses little risk to EM Trade South Africa’s April output figures suggest that, after a disastrous Q1, the economy improved a touch going into Q2. But the country will still struggle to avoid a technical recession. 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
