Europe Economics Update SNB holds back ammunition for possible Brexit The Swiss National Bank (SNB) left interest rates on hold as expected today, but it will continue to intervene in FX markets if needed, as is likely in the run-up to the UK referendum. An actual... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan to provide more easing next month The Bank of Japan still sees downside risks to its inflation forecasts, and we believe that policymakers will respond by stepping up the pace of easing next month. 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Export slump close to an end but long-term prospects subdued India's trade data for May suggest that the prolonged contraction in exports in US dollar terms has almost run its course. But with progress on the reforms needed to create a vibrant export sector... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (May) May’s data suggest that the labour market is not too strong to prevent the Reserve Bank of Australia from cutting interest rates to 1.5% at its August meeting and not too weak to prompt it to become... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q1) The rise in GDP in the first quarter doesn’t make the RBNZ any less likely to cut interest rates to 2.0% at the next policy meeting in August. And we believe that a combination of weaker GDP growth... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB holds back ammunition for possible Brexit The Swiss National Bank (SNB) left interest rates on hold as expected today, but it will continue to intervene in FX markets if needed, as is likely in the run-up to the UK referendum. An actual... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed moves the goal posts yet again Despite leaving its economic projections largely unchanged today (GDP growth expectations were revised down slightly, inflation forecasts were revised up slightly) the FOMC nevertheless cut its... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response Energy Data Response US crude stocks fell again last week due to lower imports and production. Demand for gasoline rose to an all-time high as low prices continue to stimulate consumption. 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (May) The 0.4% m/m decline in industrial production in May, which was slightly worse than consensus expectations, was largely due to a similar-sized slump in output in the struggling manufacturing sector. 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Apr.) Economic activity growth weakened sharply in Peru at the start of the second-quarter, but we suspect this is largely a temporary blip and growth should rebound in the coming months. 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are PMIs still the most useful measures of global growth? Although it is far from perfect, the global manufacturing PMI published by Markit seems to be the most reliable timely indicator of the strength of the world economy. It currently suggests that global... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Slower employment gains to weigh on Spanish office rental growth Spain’s recovery has underpinned rising office rents in Barcelona and Madrid. But with the economy losing steam, we expect weaker employment growth to moderate the pace of office rental growth. 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First reflections on Temer’s first month Michel Temer’s first month as interim president of Brazil has been a mix of the good (eye-catching economic reforms) and the bad (three members of government, including the transparency minister, have... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q1) GDP figures published today showed growth in Sri Lanka picked up in the first quarter of 2016. However, we are wary of reading too much into the data, given the serious doubts that remain over the... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Wealth effect weighs on Hong Kong consumption Private consumption growth in Hong Kong is at the weakest since 2009, even though the labour market is tight and real wages are growing strongly. The downturn in the city’s housing market and a slump... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
