Canada Economics Weekly House price gains fuelled by increasingly risky mortgages The news last week of a further acceleration in house price growth in Toronto and Vancouver in May followed hot on the heels of the warning from Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz that “the... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (May) Core CPI inflation dropped back only slightly to 2.1% in May, from 2.2%, but it should decline more markedly in the second half of this year, as the inflationary impact from the earlier slump in the... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Finland’s competitiveness pact boost the recovery? Finland’s competitiveness pact probably won’t boost employment by as much as the Government hopes. But it is still a positive move that should help to lower labour costs and boost output. 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (May) Today’s batch of Polish activity data for May was disappointing and as things stand growth in Q2 is shaping up to be a little slower than Q1’s 3.0% y/y. But the slowdown has been modest and today’s... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global monetary policy set to be even looser for longer Following the FOMC meeting earlier this week, we have lowered our forecasts for the fed funds rate at the end of 2017 and 2018. But two key themes remain unchanged: global monetary policy will... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Is average normal for US equities? The bears’ argument that the valuation of the US stock market is unsustainably high is typically made by comparing the current level of Shiller’s cyclically-adjusted price/earnings ratio (CAPE) for... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit would still shock markets, despite shift in polls While the main talking point in recent days has been “Leave” taking the lead in EU referendum opinion polls, it appears that markets are still far from fully pricing in a Brexit. This suggests that... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Brighter times ahead for India’s gold demand India’s gold demand has undeniably been weak so far in 2016, but we expect buying to pick up later in the year due to the release of pent-up demand following a jewellers’ strike in Q2 and to the... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Markets’ referendum jitters go global Brexit fears have started to take their toll in global – as well as UK – markets in the past week as opinion polls showed support for Leave rising less than a week before the EU referendum. In... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian consumers facing growing headwinds Consumer spending has grown at a steady pace across Emerging Asia over the past few years, comfortably outperforming other EM regions. Spending should continue to grow at a decent pace in most... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China would shrug off a Brexit vote A vote by the UK to leave the EU on Thursday is unlikely to have much impact on China. The economic and financial linkages between the UK and China are small, at least as far as China is concerned. In... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Are renewables jumping the queue? A surge in investment in renewable energy capacity over the last few years has led to these alternative power sources taking market share from fossil fuels. This trend looks set to continue over the... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly A Brexit would force the ECB into action European financial markets have finally woken up to the threat of a Brexit, with stock markets and core country bond yields declining. A UK vote to leave the EU on 23rd June would prompt greater... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Brexit uncertainty not weighing on consumer spending Consumers appear to have shrugged off EU referendum uncertainty which should help prevent GDP growth from slowing much in Q2. And spending should continue to grow at rates around its historical... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore prices have further to fall The price of iron ore appears to have stabilised around $50 per tonne, after a dramatic run-up earlier this year. But we think prices will continue to ease back given oversupply and waning demand. 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting the risks from populism Concerns about the emergence of economic populism in Central and Eastern Europe are on the rise once again. This is already weighing on local financial markets and, although it’s not likely to have an... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
