Europe Economics Update How would Brexit affect Sweden? The UK is Sweden’s fourth largest export market, but the direct trade impact of a Brexit would probably be small. A Brexit could have a bigger impact on Sweden through its effect on the krona . And... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Government’s austerity warnings don’t look plausible Today’s warnings from the “Remain” camp that the Government would ramp up austerity immediately in a post-Brexit emergency Budget do not look very plausible. It is more likely that the Government... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Apr.) While the euro-zone trade surplus jumped to a record high in April, any boost from trade to GDP growth in Q2 is likely to be offset by weakness in other parts of the economy. 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Apr.) In April, the pace of job creation picked up for the second consecutive month. Moreover, with vacancies still high and job creation mainly driven by full-time positions, occupier demand conditions... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Apr./May) The healthy performance of the labour market provides more evidence that growth has not slowed markedly in Q2 ahead of the looming referendum. 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) After accelerating since mid-2015, credit growth now appears to be stabilising. It may start to slow before long given that policymakers have in recent months refrained from further monetary easing. 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The rebound in consumer confidence following the RBA’s decision to cut interest rates in May was sustained in June. But since rate cuts tend to boost sentiment for only a couple of months, confidence... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How would Brexit affect Sweden? The UK is Sweden’s fourth largest export market, but the direct trade impact of a Brexit would probably be small. A Brexit could have a bigger impact on Sweden through its effect on the krona. And... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus A new equilibrium in the US stock market In our view, the equilibrium price/earnings ratio of the US stock market is now much higher than its long run average. Indeed, we think it is close to its current cyclically-adjusted level. If we are... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Prospects for consumer spending remain fairly bright Global growth fears have re-emerged in recent weeks, but we think that prospects are still reasonably bright. In particular, conditions are in place for a period of steady, if unspectacular, growth in... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Pressures on Saudi riyal should start to ease Speculation has mounted in recent weeks that Saudi Arabia will devalue the riyal. For our part, we have long argued that policymakers would be loath to abandon the dollar peg. And, as we explain in... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update No evidence of labour market downturn in NFIB survey The latest NFIB survey suggests that small businesses are still intent on hiring additional workers, even though finding suitably qualified employees is getting harder. Unfortunately, small businesses... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Negative yields to boost gold’s appeal as a reserve asset The commodity price indices have risen in the last month, encouraged by rising oil prices and by a scaling back of expectations for US interest rate rises which in turn has weakened the dollar. But... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What would Brexit mean for Ireland? Ireland is the most exposed euro-zone country to any economic fallout from a Brexit . But just as we think that the economic costs of a Brexit for the UK are often overstated, we think that the Irish... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May) The strength of the May retail sales report should provide plenty of comfort to those concerned that the recent slump in payrolls would be followed by a downturn in activity. It still appears that... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
