UK Economics Focus Will investment income eliminate the current account deficit? The main culprit for the UK’s huge current account deficit is the recent deterioration in the UK’s investment income balance. While we expect some of this to be cyclical, we doubt that we will see a... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Markets bounce as Leave loses poll lead The Leave campaign’s earlier momentum appears to have stalled over the weekend as referendum campaigning resumed on Sunday, improving sentiment in both UK and global markets. 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (May) Today’s weaker-than-expected Russian activity data for May provide early signs that the fall in GDP in Q2 may be larger than in Q1. Consumer-facing sectors continued to bear the brunt of Russia’s... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian interest rates to fall by more than most expect The decision this month by Russia’s central bank to lower interest rates after a hiatus of close to a year has been followed by fairly hawkish comments from policymakers making clear that this does... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (May) According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary aluminium output declined by 0.5% y/y in May. But the annual figure masks the underlying picture of higher prices continuing to... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Increased US drilling activity to limit upside for oil prices Early signs that rising crude prices have induced oil companies to bring drilling rigs back online suggest that US output could rise sooner than previously thought, especially in light of the... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rising consumer spending to lift Bucharest retail rents Prime retail rents in Bucharest have, so far, failed to benefit from the surge in retail sales. But with a robust economic outlook and international retailers increasingly attracted to city, we expect... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (May) Saudi inflation edged down for a second consecutive month in May, although it remained elevated due to the energy and water tariff hikes earlier in the year. Further ahead, with economic growth... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Governor Rajan to step down, all eyes now on successor The announcement from RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan that he will stand down at the end of his current contract in September is likely to put local financial markets under pressure in the near term... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (May) The trade surplus narrowed in May as the stronger yen lowered export revenues and rising energy prices lifted import values. We expect crude oil prices to recover further next year, so the trade... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How will the UK’s vote on EU membership affect the markets? 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly All about Brexit Worries about contagion from a UK vote to leave the European Union (‘Brexit’) have undermined the prices of riskier assets this past week, including oil and other industrial commodities, while... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Macri makes inroads into Argentina’s deficit but more work to do Revamped data released by Argentina’s Finance Ministry show that the primary fiscal deficit narrowed significantly in Q1. However, further cuts will be needed to stabilise the public debt ratio and... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed’s rate forecasts veering like a drunken sailor The key US event this week will be Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony to Congress. She will be testifying to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and the House Financial Services... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (May.) Today’s data on housing starts were somewhat disappointing, showing no change in starts between April and May. But with market conditions still tight and builder confidence rising, starts should... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Copenhagen industrial yields set for substantial falls by 2018 Copenhagen industrial yields have lagged behind the falls seen in the other sectors, as well as those seen for industrial assets in other cities. However, with the occupier market outlook now much... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
