UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (May.) Mortgage approvals partly reversed April’s post-stamp duty slump in May. But with the near-term economic outlook weakened by the Brexit vote, and uncertainty now set to persist, we expect growth in... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Referendum unlikely to be the catalyst for the next crash Victory for the Leave campaign in yesterday’s EU referendum clearly poses some downside risks to the commercial property market outlook in the UK. Yet we think that fears that the result will trigger... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (June) June’s rise in the German Ifo measure of business confidence suggests that the economy continued to grow at pretty healthy rate in Q2. But given the financial market reaction to the UK’s vote to leave... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Out vote will hit transactions harder than house prices The electorate’s vote to take the UK out the European Union presents another potential headwind to a housing market already labouring under worryingly high prices. But if we are right that the economy... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Brexit vote rattles EMs The vote by the UK to leave the EU is already creating a flight to safety, with financial markets in EMs that have deeper and more liquid markets (Mexico), large current account deficits (South Africa... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is Article 50 the only way for the UK to leave the EU? Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union provides a legal route by which the UK can withdraw from the EU. But could the UK bypass Article 50? And what are the chances that the vote to leave could... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian economies and markets should shrug off Brexit With the region’s trade ties to the UK relatively weak, the direct economic implications for Emerging Asia of the UK’s vote to leave the EU should be small. Equities and currencies have weakened, but... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update UK vote raises longer-term risks to Eastern Europe The UK’s vote to leave the EU in yesterday’s referendum is likely to cause further turbulence in Central and Eastern European (CEE) financial markets in the coming days and weeks. As things stand, we... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update UK’s vote to leave EU raises doubts over future of Europe The UK’s vote to leave the European Union will have substantial negative effects on the European economy and raises serious doubts over the future of both the EU itself and the currency union. 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit won’t destroy the UK economy The vote to leave the EU has clearly weakened the near-term outlook for the UK economy. But we still think that the ultimate damage will be smaller than many estimates have suggested. 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What will the Philippines look like under Duterte? Rodrigo Duterte, who will become the next president of the Philippines on 30 th June, will take over an economy in good health. We believe the foundations are in place for growth to remain strong, but... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Does the absence of an easing bias rule out more rate cuts? The surprising lack of an easing bias in the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s June policy meeting could be interpreted as a signal that interest rates have reached a floor. However, we don... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB waiver offers limited relief for Greece The ECB’s decision to reinstate a waiver allowing Greek banks to borrow from it at low interest rates will help to ease pressure on the banking sector. But it is very unlikely to generate a lending... 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Financial risks continue to build in China A continued build-up of private sector debt in China is increasing financial risks. We don’t expect the sharp rise in credit to cause imminent problems, but we are concerned about sustainability in... 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (May) After a 12.3% m/m jump in April, it is not surprising that new home sales fell back in May. But even after a 6.0% m/m drop sales in May were 5.6% higher than in March. That suggests that new home... 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) Preliminary business surveys published today suggest that growth in advanced economies remained stable, but pretty weak, in June. 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
