Global Central Bank Watch How much has “Brexit” changed prospects for monetary policy? In the immediate aftermath of the UK referendum, central bankers have concentrated on providing verbal reassurance, but they may soon back their words with action. We think the Bank of England will... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Post-Brexit EM market moves likely to be driven by Fed & China EM financial markets are often hit hard during bouts of investor risk aversion, but most have come through the past few days in reasonable shape. Looking ahead, EMs are more likely to face acute sell... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Jun.) June’s increase in German inflation back into positive territory may well mark the start of an upward trend. But even in Germany, we do not think that inflation is on track to reach the ECB’s near 2%... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update A more subdued outlook for China’s copper demand Following downward revisions to our projections for China’s growth, we are also nudging down our forecast for the price of copper. Despite sizeable policy stimulus in China, it has become apparent... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Housing market activity finally picking up A surge in new home sales in April, which was only partly reversed in May, suggests that housing market activity is finally picking up. Activity is being supported by an improving labour market, very... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jun.) & Mortgage Lending (May.) Today’s data paint a picture of a relatively subdued housing market in the run up to the referendum. Unfortunately, it will be several months before we get a clear picture of how the tangible sense of... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (June) June’s fall in euro-zone business and consumer confidence suggests that the euro-zone economy was slowing even before the UK voted to leave the EU. 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Ratings upgrade in Hungary will outweigh potential Brexit fallout We do not see the UK’s vote to leave the EU as having a major effect on the CEE economies and property markets. Indeed, with Hungary likely to be buoyed by a second ratings upgrade later this year, we... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (May) Net lending to property increased in May, reversing much of April’s losses. And the fact that development lending registered its first material rise since 2011 can be seen as a sign that traditional... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Would FX intervention halt the strengthening of the yen? If worries about a deepening crisis in the EU drive another surge of safe haven flows into Japan, even direct foreign exchange intervention would probably not prevent the yen from strengthening... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jun.) This month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators in Emerging Europe suggest that growth in the region as a whole eased a touch at the end of the current quarter. These data don’t capture the impact from the... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (May) Although May’s household borrowing figures showed that mortgage approvals recovered from April’s 11-month low, there are still signs that the mortgage market is slowing. Meanwhile, pre-referendum... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jun.) Small business confidence picked up in June and the further improvement predicted for July suggests that manufacturing activity will continue to recover in coming months. 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Brexit volatility won't prompt July rate cut The recent volatility in global financial markets triggered by the UK’s vote to leave the EU is unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates from 1.75% to 1.50% at its... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Further FDI reform will prove harder to implement Measures announced last week to further ease restrictions on foreign direct investment into India should help at the margins to build on one of the main policy successes of the Modi government so far... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
