Japan Data Response Tankan (Q2) While the Tankan’s headline index held steady last quarter, the survey doesn’t capture the impact of Brexit in full. What’s more, conditions for non-manufacturers worsened. 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Household Spending, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (May) While the labour market remains tight, consumer spending probably slowed last quarter. With underlying inflation now clearly weakening, we retain our view that the Bank of Japan will announce more... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a 16-month high of 53.2 in June, from 51.3, was much better than consensus expectations and is consistent with GDP growth of a little more than 2%. Indeed... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Easing cycles have further to run in several frontier markets The past month has brought aggressive monetary easing in a handful of frontier markets, and we think others will follow suit over the rest of this year. Cuts in policy interest rates this month in... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Brexit is the least of Canada’s worries The UK referendum vote to leave the European Union has triggered a renewed turmoil in financialmarkets, but we doubt the decision will damage Canada’s economy in any meaningful way. Despitethe strong... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Apr.) The muted 0.1% m/m gain in real GDP in April, while in line with consensus expectations, is disappointing since it follows contractions in both February and March. Furthermore, the raging wildfires... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Market moves could destabilise the euro-zone periphery Recent market movements point to a downturn in euro-zone growth, particularly in the periphery. The ECB is likely to respond by loosening monetary policy, but it cannot solve all of the euro-zone’s... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Marked rebound in payrolls might not be evident until July Our econometric model points to a 150,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June, thanks in part to the return of 35,000 Verizon workers who were excluded from the payroll survey in May. Under those... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New market forecasts in the wake of the “Brexit” vote Our existing market forecasts were premised on an assumption that the UK would vote to remain in the EU. After the vote to leave, we have allowed the initial dust to settle, reviewed our projections... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why have equity markets rebounded after the Brexit vote? There are several plausible reasons why the prices of equities and other riskier assets have recovered after the UK’s vote to leave the EU. Some of these may be temporary, notably short covering. More... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Naira float, Brexit rattle local markets The key decision affecting African markets this month was Nigeria’s long-awaited currency reforms, which sent the naira tumbling. The effect of Britain’s vote to leave the EU was relatively limited... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What have we learned since the referendum? While it’s extremely early days yet, developments in the week since the EU referendum have not altered our view that the economic damage will be smaller than others have suggested. 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update New Argentine GDP data look plausible…but point to recession Argentina’s statistics office has finally released a new GDP series based on a revised methodology and the good news is that it seems to paint a more accurate picture of economic activity on the... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What next for monetary policy in Taiwan? With the economy struggling badly and inflationary pressures very low, Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) today cuts its discount rate by a further 12.5 basis points to 1.375%. Given the poor outlook for... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jun.) & German Retail Sales (May) June’s rise in euro-zone CPI inflation into positive territory might mark the start of an upward trend, but we see little hope of inflation hitting the ECB’s target over the medium term. 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
