Africa Data Response South Africa Business Confidence (June) South Africa’s business confidence index remained weak in June, though it rose from the all-time low in May. Other surveys – and timely activity data – suggest that the economy probably avoided a... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How has Brexit affected our forecasts? The outcome of the vote has dented the outlook for occupier demand, and as a result we have cut our all-property rental value growth forecasts for the next two years, from 2.9% and 2.4% respectively... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is sterling a good indicator of global Brexit risks? The renewed slide in the value of the pound yesterday has prompted fresh jitters in global financial markets, as well as increased demand for traditional safe havens such as gold and the yen. But... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Don’t panic about the pound While the downward pressure on the pound has increased in response to some adverse post-referendum developments, we have long argued that a substantially lower exchange rate would be an important... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank pushes back rate rise expectations Sweden’s Riksbank has pushed back its expectations for a rate rise. Although the negative impact of previous falls in energy prices on inflation is fading and domestic inflationary pressures are... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update German industrial yields to fall despite looking relatively expensive Economic uncertainty and lower business and consumer confidence resulting from Brexit are likely to weigh on German GDP growth over the coming 18 months, leading to slower industrial rental growth... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting our Emerging Europe forecasts The negative economic spillovers on Central and South Eastern Europe from the UK’s vote for Brexit are likely to be smaller than many fear, but they will still drag on activity in the region... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank pushes back rate rise expectations Sweden’s Riksbank has pushed back its expectations for a rate rise. Although the negative impact of previous falls in energy prices on inflation is fading and domestic inflationary pressures are... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Jun.) The Markit/CIPS services survey was thankfully not as bad as the construction survey released yesterday. But it was not that good either and suggests that the economy struggled to grow much at all in... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May) & Final PMIs (June) May’s euro-zone retail sales data point to a slowdown in consumer spending growth, and thus GDP growth, in Q2. And despite a small upward revision from the flash release, June’s Composite PMI also... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA not too worried by political uncertainty By leaving interest rates at 1.75% and not providing a very strong hint that they will be cut in August, the Reserve Bank of Australia today implied that the recent financial market volatility and... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What will the GDP data tell us about underlying conditions? The Q2 GDP data will provide a welcome glimpse into the performance of parts of the service sector where the regular monthly flow of data provides less visibility. But the figures should be handled... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Passage of Goods and Services Tax edging closer Recent changes to the composition of the Rajya Sabha have raised the likelihood that the long-awaited Goods and Services Tax (GST) bill will finally be passed. But there are still sticking points, the... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales & International Trade (May) Weaker-than-expected retail sales and international trade figures for May provide further evidence that GDP growth probably slowed sharply in the second quarter. This won’t be enough to persuade the... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Headwinds to QQE intensifying The yen has strengthened sharply since the start of the year and is now back at the level seen at the launch of Quantitative and Qualitative Easing. The resulting plunge in import prices has... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Brexit vote not a game-changer for world economy It’s early days but we see no reason to change our view that the global economic fallout from the UK referendum result should be minimal. The UKrecovery will probably falter due to heightened... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
