What will the GDP data tell us about underlying conditions?

The Q2 GDP data will provide a welcome glimpse into the performance of parts of the service sector where the regular monthly flow of data provides less visibility. But the figures should be handled with care since political pressure to meet official targets means that the GDP data will have almost certainly continued to overstate the pace of actual growth last quarter, even if the trajectory of GDP growth is likely to be broadly consistent with the relative stability signalled by more trustworthy data.