UK Data Response Trade (May) & GfK Consumer Confidence (Jul.) While the latest trade figures highlighted the unbalanced nature of the recovery, GfK’s “Brexit special” consumer confidence figures provided some worrying signs that the main engine of growth may be... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French Industrial Production & German Trade (May) May’s decline in French industrial production only partly reversed April’s gain but combined with falls elsewhere leaves euro-zone industry looking weak. And Germany’s trade balance fell from its... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A look ahead to 2018 Looser fiscal policy is likely to support an acceleration in economic growth next year but it will fizzle out again in 2018 leaving ample amounts of spare capacity and little in the way of... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Jun.) The plunge in the outlook of today’s Economy Watchers Survey indicates that the stronger yen and Brexit have dealt a serious blow to confidence in Japan. 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why the AAA credit rating doesn’t matter While we doubt that the loss of Australia’s AAA credit rating would be followed by a rise in borrowing costs for the government, states and banks, it would nonetheless highlight that the burden to... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (May) Wage growth turned negative in May, and even allowing for falling working hours, the tight labour market has yet to produce noticeable cost pressures . 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Why wait? The relatively calm market reaction to the EU referendum might suggest that there is no urgency for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to deliver additional policy stimulus at its policy meeting on... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (7th Jul. 16) US crude and gasoline stocks fell again last week, but the dramatic fall in US crude oil production has stolen at least some of the limelight. 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Markets take China’s ‘stealth’ devaluation in their stride Capital 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun 2016) The modest fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate in June, to 2.5% y/y from 2.6% y/y in May, hides the fact that core inflation pressures are creeping up. Coupled with continued pressure on the peso... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Weakness in official sector’s gold buying to be short-lived The latest data suggest that gold demand from the official sector remained subdued in May. However, we expect this to be only temporary as central banks continue to diversify away from the US dollar... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Floods add risks to inflation outlook Consumer price inflation is likely to have fallen in June on the back of a further decline in food price inflation. Looking ahead, while we expect inflation in the second half of 2016 to be broadly... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation set to fall but interest rate cuts to be gradual We expect inflation in Brazil to fall back over the next year but, despite a recent repricing, the centralbank may still not cut interest rates as quickly as the markets expect. 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Nordic transaction levels on course to beat 2015 After a solid start to the year, Nordic transaction volumes now need only to equal those from the same period last year to set a new annual record. With concerns over UK pricing in the wake of the... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery loses some momentum in Q2 The latest data survey data suggest that growth slowed further in the second quarter, ahead of the referendum. Indeed, the Markit/CIPS composite PMI ended June at a level consistent with no quarterly... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jun.) The Halifax index reported a solid rise in house prices in May. But with the quarterly rate of growth having more than halved over the last few months, today’s data suggest that house price growth had... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
