UK Housing Market Focus After the referendum - how will the housing market fare? The movements in housebuilder share prices in the past two weeks could be a sign that a slump in house price expectations is about to trigger a fresh house price correction. But if we are right, and... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Investment activity in H2 likely to be subdued June’s investment data showed steady transactional activity compared to May. But this reflects the final month before the impact of the referendum result is felt. Accordingly, with commercial property... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary revamps monetary framework…again Planned changes by the National Bank of Hungary to its benchmark three-month deposit facility announced this afternoon could act to loosen monetary conditions, although in practice they seem unlikely... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (May 2016) The weaker-than-expected 0.4% y/y rise in Mexican industrial production growth in May, down sharply from 1.9% y/y in April, confirms that the sector remains the weak spot of the economy. There’s... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the Nikkei about to be lifted by ‘helicopter money’? We remain cautiously optimistic about the outlook for Japanese equities. However, this is based on the assumption that ‘conventional’ QE will drag the yen lower again, rather than the financing of... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May) Indian consumer price inflation held steady in June, but it remains some way above the RBI's target for March 2017. As such, the scope for further monetary loosening still looks very limited. 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Output (May) Strong May manufacturing figures add to the evidence that South Africa’s economy avoided a recession in Q2. The sector seems to be benefiting from the weak rand. 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation to slow but stay above target We think that Indian consumer price inflation dropped in June, but it is likely to have remained some way above the Reserve Bank’s 5.0% target for March 2017. There is little reason to think that... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (June) Swedish inflation hit a four-year high in June, but it is still low. So although domestic price pressures are rising, the Riksbank may still have to take further policy action. 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jun.) June’s BRC sales data – which cover the days both before and immediately after the EU referendum – show the retail sector faltering. But we will have to wait a bit longer before a clear picture of the... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - New Zealand dollar won’t continue to defy gravity The New Zealand dollar may not to be able to defy gravity for much longer as a shrinking interest rate premium could drag it down from US$0.73 now to around US$0.65 by the end of the year. That would... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (June 16) The Riksbank minutes confirm a readiness to act if conditions deteriorate in the wake of the UK’s Brexit vote. But there are signs of diminishing appetite for further measures from some members. 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The Netherlands will be hit harder than most by Brexit The Dutch economy is more vulnerable than most to a downturn in the UK. In turn, the negative labour market impact could boost support for eurosceptic parties ahead of next year’s elections. 11th July 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily A cautionary (but still positive) note on Japanese equities 11th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How will policymakers respond to the Brexit vote? The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to look through the inflationary consequences of the drop in the pound seen since the Brexit vote and focus instead on cushioning the... 11th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What will Russia’s recovery look like? The Russian economy is through the acute phase of its crisis and a recovery should begin over the coming quarters. However, it will be extremely weak. We expect the economy to stagnate over 2016 as a... 11th July 2016 · 1 min read
