US Data Response Industrial Prod. (Jun.) & Cons. Confidence (Jul.) The 0.6% m/m rise in industrial production was better than consensus forecast of a 0.3% m/m gain, primarily because of the stronger-than-expected rebound in manufacturing output. 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Participation rate will fall further The decline in the unemployment rate to an 11-month low of 6.8% in June, from 7.1% as recently as April, is not as good as it looks. It went down primarily because people gave up looking for work not... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Tentative signs of post-referendum slowdown What little data we have had so far suggest that the economy has weakened following the vote to leave the EU. Although this wasn’t enough to persuade the MPC to loosen policy in July, easing is by no... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Hopes of policy stimulus boost industrial metals The prices of riskier assets, including industrial metals as well as equities, have been boosted by hopes of additional fiscal and monetary support to mitigate any global fallout from the UK’s vote to... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Labour market nearing full employment The incoming labour market data, including the strong rebound in June payrolls, have confirmed our suspicions that the big declines in April and May were only a temporary blip rather than the start of... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Will the plunge in UK gilt yields last? In the wake of the UK’s vote for Brexit on 23rd June, long-term government bond yields have fallen further there than in other developed countries. (See Chart below.) Indeed, the 10-year Gilt yield... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (May) The rebound in Peruvian economic activity in May leaves the economy on course to expand by around 4% in Q2. That would be weaker than the Q1 outturn, but it would still mean that Peru remained one of... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Jun.) The unexpected strength of underlying retail sales in June means that second-quarter GDP growth still appears to have been between 2.5% and 3.0% annualised. Real consumption growth will be 4.0%. At... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (May) The 1.0% m/m decline in manufacturing sales in May was only partly due to the Alberta wildfires and that nominal decline was flattered by a rebound in energy prices. In volume terms, sales fell by a... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What to expect from Emerging Asia in 2017-18 Loose monetary policy should help to limit downside risks to economic growth over the coming months across most of Emerging Asia, but further ahead we expect regional growth to slow. Much of this... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Mixed effect of Brexit on CEE property markets As in core Europe, bond yields in the CEE region have fallen indiscriminately in the aftermath of the Brexit vote. This will mean that, whilst economic growth will be a touch weaker, in the long-run... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s calls for fiscal stimulus will not be heeded The ECB is set to loosen policy in the coming months. But there is a limit to how much more monetary policy alone can do for growth. In the wake of the UK’s Brexit vote, Mario Draghi’s calls for... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Sterling slump cushions post-referendum hit to equities The UK’s surprise vote to leave the EU sent a shockwave through global markets – but parts of the subsequent post-referendum response have been more muted than previously feared. Clearly, sterling was... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (May) & Final CPI (Jun.) May’s euro-zone goods trade data suggest that net exports will have cushioned the likely slowdown in GDP growth in Q2. Further ahead, we expect the trade surplus to narrow further this year, as slower... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile & Peru hold interest rates, but hikes on the horizon The decisions by the Chilean and Peruvian central banks to leave monetary policy unchanged didn’t come as a surprise as, for now, the inflation picture in both economies is improving. But with... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
