UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (May 2016) Job creation was healthy in May, reflecting strong labour demand prior to the referendum. And while these figures seem to bode well for property, we would not give them too much weight as lower... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC unfazed by rise in political risk The Turkish MPC’s decision to cut its overnight lending rate by a further 25bp today suggests the Council views the market volatility stemming from Friday night’s attempted coup (and growing concerns... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities benefit from greater risk appetite The metals, both industrial and precious, have been the star performers this month as investor sentiment improved. Meanwhile, the return of supply that had been lost to unanticipated outages weighed... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update IMF changes its tune on Brexit Having spent the past few months warning that Brexit would cause “severe regional and global damage”, the IMF today all but admitted that it had been bluffing, and acknowledged that economic growth... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Policy response should cushion the hit from leave vote The UK’s vote to leave the European Union has plunged the country into a period of almost unprecedented uncertainty. But we remain a bit less pessimistic than some others over the economic impact. So... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: current account to remain in deficit, rand under pressure A string of positive trade figures released over the past few months has raised hopes that South Africa’s balance of payments position might finally improve. In this Watch, however, we explain why the... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jun.) Russia’s activity data for June suggest that output probably contracted at the same pace in Q2 as it did in Q1. Industry has remained the key driver of the economy, but this has been offset by weak... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jun. 2016) Although housing starts saw a solid rise in June, the bigger picture is that there has been no sustained upward progress in homebuilding activity for over a year now. But we suspect that as credit... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank finds positives despite Brexit vote The Riksbank minutes confirm a readiness to act if conditions deteriorate in the wake of the UK’s Brexit vote. But there are signs of diminishing appetite for further measures from some members. 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jun.) June’s strong activity data from Poland were flattered by working day effects, but the underlying trend seems pretty strong. Indeed, the figures suggest that GDP growth may have picked up to around 3... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fresh devaluation of the Egyptian pound just a matter of time The Egyptian pound has been held steady since March’s devaluation, but persistent strains in the balance of payments mean that it needs to fall further. Recent shifts towards more orthodox... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jun.) June’s rise should be the start of an upward trend in inflation in the wake of sterling’s referendum-related slide. But while inflation will probably breach the 2% target in a year’s time, this... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jul.) & E-Z Bank Lending Survey (Q2) July’s German ZEW Survey, which was conducted over the past two weeks, suggests that investors are more worried about the effects of Brexit on the German economy than the financial market response has... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Mainland Europe investment likely to be boosted by Brexit On first sight, European investment turnover in H1 was weaker than in the same period in 2015. However, removing the UK from the analysis means that activity has actually ticked up slightly compared... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Official UK House Price Index (May.) The annual rate of house price growth held firm in May. And while house price growth in London is still running strong, survey data suggest that price growth in the capital will cool sharply over the... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
