UK Data Response Public Finances & Retail Sales (Jun.) Government borrowing in June was well down on a year ago and retail sales showed a strong increase in Q2. But borrowing still wasn’t on track to meet the OBR’s forecast and June’s sales set a poor... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What does Brexit mean for the public finances? It appears likely that the Chancellor won’t ramp up austerity to offset the negative impact of Brexiton the public finances. Instead, we think he will increase borrowing further relative to... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Shrugging off global and domestic uncertainty The early evidence suggests that businesses and households in Australia have not been ruffled by the UK’s vote to leave the EU and Australia’s close Federal election result. Admittedly, consumer... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ hits out at high dollar The Reserve Bank of New Zealand used its unusual inter-meeting “economic update” to all-but guarantee that it will cut rates from 2.25% to 2.00% at the meeting on 11 August and that it wants the... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor Some investors in Japan have responded to the introduction of negative interest ratesby acquiring more overseas securities. Meanwhile, bank lending rates have fallen butthe availability of cheaper... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (20th Jul. 16) Higher demand from refineries helped to pull down crude stocks last week. But greater production of gasoline caused motor fuel inventories to rise. 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jun.) World Steel Association (WSA) data, released this afternoon, show that global steel output was flat in year-on-year terms in June. But the weak start to the year meant that production still fell by 1... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update The outlook for mortgage rates following Brexit The downward pressure on mortgage interest rates from Brexit already appears to be unwinding, with 30-year fixed rates increasing last week from 3.60% to 3.65%. Given we expect Brexit will have a... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Improving data point to September rate hike The Fed is very unlikely to spring any surprises at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday 27th July, but a September rate hike is a distinct possibility. The statement next week... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jun.) According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary aluminium output declined by 1.2% y/y. However, daily average production continues to recover in response to rising prices. 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for EM monetary policy? Most EM central banks look set to maintain a loosening bias over the next couple of years. Nonetheless, there are a handful of emerging economies where inflationary pressures mean that interest rate... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rising inflation will push Colombia into further rate hikes Upside risks to Colombian inflation over the next few months mean that we now expect the central bank to raise interest rates by 25bp this month, to 7.75%, with a further hike in August likely... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market & BoE Agents’ Scores (May/Jun.) The latest labour market figures showed that despite the referendum looming at thetime, the jobs recovery remained in fine fettle in Q2. But this shouldn’t prevent theMonetary Policy Committee from... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (June) Last month’s rise in South African inflation, to 6.3% y/y, took the headline rate further above the Reserve Bank’s target range, and both we and the Bank expect it to edge higher over the rest of this... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack No signs of major stress in labour market Recent data from China’s labour market corroborate evidence elsewhere that the economy has slowed since the start of 2015 but that it has avoided the collapse that many had feared. Migrant wage growth... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
